Arkansas vs Mississippi State Prediction College Football Picks 10/26/24

Mississippi State (1-6) vs Arkansas (4-3)

Game Info: Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 12:45 pm (Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field)

Betting Odds: Mississippi State +6.5 / Arkansas -6.5 --- Over/Under: 58.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: SEC Network

In this article, we will formulate an Arkansas vs Mississippi State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 26th at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 9 matchup. 

Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview

The Arkansas Razorbacks are 4-3 (2-2) this year after they lost to LSU by a score of 34-10 in their last game. Arkansas cut the deficit to 13-7 in the second quarter and 16-10 in the third, but they were outscored 18-0 after that point. The Razorbacks were outgained by a total of 395-277, lost the turnover battle 3-0, and went 4-9 on third down in the game. Taylen Green threw for 239 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Andrew Armstrong caught seven passes for 94 yards and one score. 

Arkansas also has losses against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, but they do have wins against UAPB, UAB, Auburn, and Tennessee. The Arkansas offense has scored 30.6 points per game with 278.7 passing yards and 176 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 21.3 points per game this season. The Razorbacks have gone 51.5% on third down and 6-13 on fourth down through seven games. Taylen Green has completed 58.2% of his passes for 1,741 yards, six touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Andrew Armstrong has caught 45 passes for 646 yards and one score. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 1-6 (0-4) this season after they lost to Texas A&M by a score of 34-24 in their last game. Mississippi State led 7-0 in the first quarter and cut the deficit to 31-24 in the fourth, but couldn’t get any closer. The Bulldogs outgained Texas A&M by a total of 367-353, won the turnover battle 2-1, and went 5-16 on third down in the game. Michael Van Buren Jr. threw for 242 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Kevin Coleman Jr. caught eight passes for 89 yards and one score. 

Mississippi State has also lost to Arizona State, Toledo, Florida, Texas, and Georgia, but they did win their first game against Eastern Kentucky. The Mississippi State offense has scored 30 points per game with 252.3 passing yards and 126.7 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 33.3 points per game this season. The Bulldogs have gone 40% on third down and 13-23 on fourth down so far this season. Michael Van Buren Jr. has completed 53.5% of his passes for 792 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Kevin Coleman Jr. has caught 44 passes for 536 yards and four scores. 

Why Arkansas will cover

  • Mississippi State has lost each of its last seven home games against conference opponents.
  • Arkansas has won each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight home games against conference opponents.
  • Arkansas has covered the spread in five of its last six road games in October.

Total Points Facts

  • Each of Mississippi State's last five October games at Davis Wade Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of Arkansas' last four games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams has gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Mississippi State ranks 129th among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (-6.7).
  • Mississippi State ranks T124th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (161).
  • Arkansas ranks T15th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (4.3).
  • Arkansas ranks T16th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+5.0).

Arkansas vs Mississippi State Prediction 

Mississippi State comes into this matchup still looking for their first FBS win this season, but they have looked better over the last three games against some pretty good teams. The Bulldogs offense has scored at least 24 points in three of their last four games, but their defense has been terrible this season. Arkansas is coming off of a blowout loss against LSU last week, but they did beat Tennessee the week prior. The Razorbacks could have some trouble here if they aren’t focused and ready to play, but they are still the much better team in this matchup. Take Arkansas on the road. 

David’s Pick Arkansas -6.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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