Louisville vs Virginia Prediction College Football Picks 10/12/24

In this article, we will formulate a Louisville vs Virginia prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 12th at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 7 matchup. 

Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview

The Louisville Cardinals are 3-2 (1-1) this year after they lost to SMU by a score of 34-27 last week. Louisville trailed 24-13 at halftime, but they did tie the game at 27 late in the third quarter, before losing by one score in the fourth. The Cardinals were outgained by a total of 481-461, lost the turnover battle 1-0, and went 4-12 on third down in the game. Tyler Shough threw for 329 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Isaac Brown rushed for 117 yards on 10 carries. 

Louisville lost to Notre Dame by a score of 31-24 in the game prior to SMU, but they did win their first three games against Austin Peay, Jacksonville State, and Georgia Tech. The Louisville offense has scored 37.4 points per game with 303.4 passing yards and 169.2 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 19.6 points per game this season. The Cardinals have gone 42.6% on third down and 5-11 on fourth down so far this season. Tyler Shough has completed 64.5% of his passes for 1,443 yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Ja’Corey Brooks has caught 25 passes for 489 yards and six scores. 

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview

The Virginia Cavaliers are 4-1 (2-0) this season after they defeated Boston College by a score of 24-14 in their last game. Virginia trailed 14-0 in the second quarter, but they scored the last 24 points in the game for the win. The Cavaliers outgained BC by a total of 339-319, won the turnover battle 3-0, and went 7-16 on third down in the game. Anthony Colandrea threw for 179 yards and one touchdown, while Kobe Pace rushed for 83 yards on 19 carries. 

Virginia has also defeated Coastal Carolina, Wake Forest, and Richmond, but did lose to Maryland by a score of 27-13 in their third game. The UVA offense has scored 29 points per game with 252 passing yards and 180.2 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 21.6 points per game this season. The Cavaliers have gone 33.8% on third down and 7-12 on fourth down so far this season. Anthony Colandrea has completed 66.4% of his passes for 1,211 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Malachi Fields has caught 28 passes for 412 yards and three scores. 

Why Virginia will cover

• Louisville has lost each of its last four October games as a road favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Virginia has won four of its last five games.
• Louisville has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six October games as a road favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Virginia has covered the spread in each of its last five October games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why Louisville will cover

• Virginia has lost eight of its last 10 games against conference opponents at Scott Stadium.
• Louisville has won 12 of its last 16 games against conference opponents.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of the last three games between Louisville and Virginia.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Louisville’s last eight October road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Virginia’s last four games as an underdog has gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Virginia ranks T34th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (4.0).
• Virginia ranks T101st among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (11.0).
• Louisville ranks 14th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (303.4).
• Louisville ranks T15th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (12.4).

Louisville vs Virginia Prediction 

Louisville comes into this matchup trying to snap their two-game losing streak, but they need to play much better defense if they want to get the win here. The Cardinals have allowed 34 and 31 points in their last two games and will face a Virginia offense that is not bad. The Cavaliers have won two games in a row, including a nice comeback victory against a solid BC team. I think Virginia has a chance to win this game, but I think a high-scoring game is more likely, so give me the over here.