Arkansas State vs Texas State Prediction College Football Picks 10/12/24

Texas State (3-2) vs Arkansas State (3-2)

Game Info: Saturday, October 12, 2024 at 7:00 pm (UFCU Stadium)

Betting Odds: Texas State -14 / Arkansas State +14 --- Over/Under: 63.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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In this article, we will formulate an Arkansas State vs Texas State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 12th at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 7 matchup. 

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 3-2 (1-0) this year after they defeated South Alabama by a score of 18-16 last week. Arkansas State led 6-3 at halftime, but they needed a late touchdown to get the narrow win. The Red Wolves were outgained by a total of 453-411, won the turnover battle 1-0, and went 5-15 on third down in the game. Jaylen Raynor threw for 345 yards and one touchdown, while Corey Rucker caught eight passes for 172 yards in the game. 

Arkansas State also has wins against Central Arkansas and Tulsa, but they did lose to Michigan and Iowa State earlier in the year. The Arkansas State offense has scored 21 points per game with 251.4 passing yards and 93.8 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 30.2 points per game this season. The Red Wolves have gone 41.9% on third down and 4-6 on fourth down through five games. Jaylen Raynor has completed 59.3% of his passes for 1,125 yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Corey Rucker has caught 25 passes for 437 yards and two scores. 

Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview

The Texas State Bobcats are 3-2 (1-0) this season after they defeated Troy by a score of 38-17 in their last game. Texas State scored 28 points in the first half and they were able to add 10 more points in the third quarter for the easy win. The Bobcats outgained Troy by a total of 467-331, lost the turnover battle 3-2, and went 6-12 on third down in the game. Jordan McCloud threw for 252 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Kole Wilson caught four passes for 77 yards and one score. 

Texas State also has wins against Lamar and UTSA, but they did lose to Arizona State and Sam Houston State in the game prior to Troy. The Texas State offense has scored 37.6 points per game with 285.6 passing yards and 169.2 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 25 points per game this season. The Bobcats have gone 45.5% on third down and 6-12 on fourth down so far this season. Jordan McCloud has completed 69.2% of his passes for 1,393 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Ismail Mahdi has rushed for 343 yards and two scores. 

Why Texas State will cover

  • Arkansas State has lost nine of its last 10 October road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Texas State has won four of its last five home games.
  • Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last 10 road games in October.
  • Texas State has covered the spread in three of its last four October games as a favorite.

Total Points Facts

  • Each of Texas State's last six games in October has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of Arkansas State's last five October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Texas State ranks T9th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (2.0).
  • Texas State ranks T15th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (12.4).
  • Arkansas State ranks 125th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (219.4).
  • Arkansas State ranks T120th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (9.6).

Arkansas State vs Texas State Prediction 

Texas State comes into this game after picking up a convincing road win last week against Troy, while Arkansas State was able to sneak by South Alabama. The Red Wolves have played well this season and even gave Michigan a pretty good game in The Big House, but this Texas State offense is very talented. The Bobcats have scored at least 38 points in three of their last four games and McCloud has this offense rolling. I don’t think Arkansas State has the firepower to hang with the Bobcats in this game, especially on the road, so give me Texas State here. 

David’s Pick Texas State -14

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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