Air Force vs New Mexico Prediction College Football Picks 10/12/24

New Mexico (1-4) vs Air Force (1-4)

Game Info: Saturday, October 12, 2024 at 7:00 pm (University Stadium)

Betting Odds: New Mexico -6.5 / Air Force +6.5 --- Over/Under: 53.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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In this article, we will formulate an Air Force vs New Mexico prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 12th at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 7 matchup. 

Air Force Falcons Betting Preview

The Air Force Falcons are 1-4 (0-2) this year after they lost to Navy by a score of 34-7 in their last game. Air Force cut the deficit to 14-7 in the second quarter, but they couldn’t find any more points in the loss. The Falcons were outgained by a total of 463-273, lost the turnover battle 1-0, and went 3-13 on third down in the game. Quentin Hayes threw for 115 yards and one touchdown, while Tre Roberson caught one pass for 45 yards and one score. 

Air Force won their season opener against Merrimack by a score of 21-6, but they lost the next three games against San Jose State, Baylor, and Wyoming. The Air Force offense has scored 11.4 points per game with 76 passing yards and 173 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 23.8 points per game this season. The Falcons have gone 30.7% on third down and 7-16 on fourth down through five games. There is a quarterback competition with Air Force right now, so we may see Busha or Hayes under center. 

New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview

The New Mexico Lobos are 1-4 (0-1) this season after they defeated New Mexico State by a score of 50-40 in their last game. New Mexico led 30-17 after the third quarter and they were able to hang on for the win in a wild fourth quarter. The Lobos outgained NMSU by a total of 579-474, tied the turnover battle at zero, and went 9-15 on third down in the game. Devon Dampier threw for 248 yards on 13 completions, while NaQuari Rogers rushed for 122 yards and three scores. 

New Mexico had lost their first four games of the season against Montana State, Arizona, Auburn, and Fresno State, but finally got their first win last time out. The UNM offense has scored 32 points per game with 261.8 passing yards and 199.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 43.8 points per game this season. The Lobos have gone 38.1% on third down and 5-9 on fourth down so far this season. Devon Dampier has completed 57% of his passes for 1,309 yards, six touchdowns, and six interceptions, while also rushing for 332 yards and six scores. 

Why New Mexico will cover

  • Air Force has lost each of its last five games against conference opponents.
  • The favorite has won eight of New Mexico's last nine games.
  • Air Force has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games.
  • The favorite has covered the spread in four of the last five games between Air Force and New Mexico.

Total Points Facts

  • Eight of New Mexico's last nine home games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of Air Force's last five games at University Stadium has gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • New Mexico ranks 133rd among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (242.6).
  • New Mexico ranks 132nd among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (43.8).
  • Air Force ranks 134th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (2.6).
  • Air Force ranks 134th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (76.0).

Air Force vs New Mexico Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup looking for their first conference win, but New Mexico has all of the momentum. The Lobos are coming off of a bye week and just put up 50 points in their first win of the season last time out. Air Force has lost four games in a row and their offense has been horrible to start the season. I do think the Falcons will find some success in this game against a leaky New Mexico defense, but I trust Dampier and the Lobos way more than Air Force. Take New Mexico at home. 

David’s Pick New Mexico -6.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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