Green Bay Packers vs LA Rams Prediction NFL Picks 10/6/24

LA Rams Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Rams are 1-3 this season after they lost to Chicago by a score of 24-18 in their last game. Los Angeles led 6-0 in the second quarter and the game went back and forth, but Chicago scored a touchdown with about 12 minutes left in the fourth to pull away. The Rams outgained Chicago by a total of 322-264, lost the turnover battle 2-0, and went 5-11 on third down in the game. Matthew Stafford threw for 224 yards and one interception, while Tutu Atwell caught four passes for 82 yards. 

Los Angeles also has losses against Detroit and Arizona, but they did beat San Francisco two weeks ago. The LA offense has scored 18.8 points per game with 224.3 passing yards and 88.3 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 28.8 points per game this season. The Rams have gone 37% on third down and 4-7 on fourth down so far this season. Matthew Stafford has completed 68.5% of his passes for 978 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Kyren Williams has rushed for 258 yards and five scores. 

Why the Rams will beat the Packers

• The Packers have lost each of their last four October games as favorites.
• The Rams have won each of their last six games in California.
• The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five October games as favorites.
• The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last four games as home underdogs following a loss.
• The Packers have lost the first half in 15 of their last 22 games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• The Packers have lost the first quarter in each of their last two games as favorites.

Why the Packers will beat the Rams

• The Packers have won eight of their last nine October games against NFC West opponents.
• The Rams have lost each of their last five games against NFC North opponents.
• The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Rams' last eight Week 5 games.
• The Rams have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Week 5 home games.
• The Rams have lost the first half in each of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Rams have won the first quarter in four of their last six games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).

Total Points Facts

• Eight of the Packers' last nine games as road favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Rams' last four Week 5 games has gone UNDER the total points line.

Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Facts

• Kyren Williams has recorded 88+ rushing yards in each of his last five appearances at SoFi Stadium.
• Kyren Williams has scored the last touchdown in three of his last four Sunday appearances at SoFi Stadium.
• Kyren Williams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven regular-season appearances.
• Matthew Stafford has recorded 293+ passing yards in each of his last three home appearances against NFC North opponents.
• Cooper Kupp has recorded 96+ receiving yards in each of his last four appearances with the Rams as underdogs in California.
• Kyren Williams has recorded 104+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last five appearances in California.
• Matthew Stafford has thrown three touchdowns in each of his last three home appearances against NFC North opponents.
• Kyren Williams ranks T1st in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (5) this season.

Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts

• Jayden Reed has scored at least one touchdown in six of his last seven regular-season appearances against NFC opponents.
• Jordan Love has recorded 218+ passing yards in each of the Packers' last 12 regular season games against NFC opponents.
• Tucker Kraft has recorded 31+ receiving yards in each of the Packers' last six games as favorites.
• Josh Jacobs has recorded 89+ rushing and receiving yards in four of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite following a loss.
• Josh Jacobs has recorded 89+ rushing yards in four of his five previous appearances with his team as a favorite in California.
• Jordan Love has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Packers' last eight games against NFC opponents.
• Jayden Reed is the only player averaging over 20.0 rushing yards and 60.0 receiving yards per game this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rams rank T1st in the NFL in Q4 win percentage (75.0) this season.
• The Rams rank 31st in the NFL in points allowed per game (28.8) this season.
• The Packers rank 1st in the NFL in turnover differential (+6) this season.
• The Packers rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (174.5) this season.

Green Bay Packers vs LA Rams Prediction 

Los Angeles comes into this matchup trying to avoid a dreaded 1-4 start to the season, but they have won their only home game so far this season. The Rams are coming off of a rough performance against the Bears last week and Stafford has to produce more, regardless of who is catching the football. Green Bay started very slow in their game against Minnesota, but they did play much better in the second half. The Packers offense has been dangerous to start the season, but I also think Stafford will find some success in this game, so I lean towards the over here.