San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat Prediction 3/23/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The San Antonio Spurs invade the Kaseya Center to do battle with the Miami Heat on Monday night. Here’s a San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat Prediction. This article will include a San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat Pick.

San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview 

The San Antonio Spurs have been on fire as they’ve won 21 of their last 23 games overall and they will be eager to build on their current five-game win streak after blowing past the struggling Pacers in a 134-119 win on Saturday. Dylan Harper led the starters with 24 points on nine of 13 shooting, Keldon Johnson provided the spark off the bench with 24 points on 10 of 12 shooting, while Victor Wembanyama tallied 20 points with eight rebounds, six assists and five blocks.

As a team, the Spurs shot 55 percent from the field and 13 of 34 from the 3-point line as they stormed out of the gates with 42 points in the first quarter to jump out in front by double digits and they were able to push the margin out to 21 points and they kept pushing until the lead ballooned to 28 points before they pulled all their starters early to allow the Pacers to hang around. 

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have gone cold recently as they are now on a four-game losing streak after falling painfully short to the Rockets in a 123-122 road defeat on Saturday. Bam Adebayo led the team with 32 points, 21 rebounds and four assists on 12 of 21 shooting; Tyler Herro added 25 points with six rebounds and four assists, while Simone Fontecchio chipped in with 21 points.

As a team, the Heat shot 51 percent from the field and 16 of 41 from the 3-point line as they poured in 33 points in the third quarter to pull ahead by 12 points, which looked like it was going to be enough to steal the win, before the Rockets’ Amen Thompson scored the game-winning tip-in at the buzzer in a heartbreaking finish. 

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Heat have won each of their last three games as home underdogs.
• The Spurs have lost each of their last four road games against Heat teams that held a winning record.
• The Heat have covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 games as underdogs against Southwest Division opponents following a loss.
• The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as road favorites against Southeast Division opponents.

Why the San Antonio Spurs will win

• The Spurs have won 21 of their last 22 night games.
• The Heat have lost six of their last seven night games against Southwest Division opponents that held a winning record.
• The Spurs have covered the spread in each of their last six night games against Southeast Division opponents that held a winning record.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games at Kaseya Center against Spurs teams that held a winning record.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Spurs’ last 10 road games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Heat’s last five night games against the Spurs following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.

San Antonio Spurs Player Facts

• Julian Champagnie is one of only 10 players in the league to have made 10+ threes in a game this season.
• De’Aaron Fox ranks 18th amongst qualified players for assists per game (6.3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Heat rank 1st in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.7).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for H1 points per game this season (61.8).
• The Spurs have missed the playoffs in six consecutive seasons—the second-longest active streak in the NBA.
• The Spurs rank 2nd in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.4).

San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat Prediction

The Spurs could be shorthanded here with Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle both listed as questionable, while the Heat are keeping an eye on Jaime Jacquez Jr. and Norman Powell, who are both questionable. These two squads last met at the very start of the season, where the Spurs won by 107-101 on Oct 30 at home and it’s no surprise that they’ve opened as favorites again given that they are arguably the hottest team in the league right now. I do expect the Spurs to get the win on the road, but something tells me this game is going down to the wire, so I will lean towards the Heat and the points in this spot.

Peter Tran's Pick: Miami +5.5