Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns Prediction 4/25/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Oklahoma City Thunder invade the Mortgage Matchup Center to take on the Phoenix Suns in Game 3 on Saturday evening. Here’s an Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction. This article will include an Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns Pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in the driver’s seat as they now hold a 2-0 series lead after taking down the Suns in a 120-107 win in Game 2 on Wednesday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 37 points and nine assists on 13 of 25 shooting; Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams each scored 19 points, while Ajay Mitchell chipped in with 14 points and five assists off the bench.

As a team, the Thunder shot 47 percent from the field and 14 of 40 from the 3-point line as they started to pull ahead in the second quarter before they caught fire late in the third quarter to take a 26-point lead, which was more than enough to hold off a late rally from the Suns. Isaiah Hartenstein scored just nine points, while Alex Caruso finished with just seven points on three of seven shooting off the bench. 

Phoenix Suns Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns were looking for a better effort after getting humbled in the series opener and they were able to do a little better in their loss in Game 2. Dillon Brooks bounced back from a quiet game to lead the team with 30 points on 12 of 23 shooting; Devin Booker added 22 points with seven rebounds and four assists, while Jalen Green chipped in with 21 points.

As a team, the Suns shot 46 percent from the field and 11 of 31 from the 3-point line as they were good enough to hang within striking distance of the Thunder until the third quarter, where they got outscored by 35-20 to fall behind by as many as 26 points at one stage, which was a shame because the Suns were able to cut the deficit to just 10 points with 3:47 left on the clock. Royce O’Neale provided the spark off the bench with 16 points on four of five shooting but Collin Gillespie scored just seven points on three of nine shooting. 

Why the Phoenix Suns will win

• The Thunder have lost each of their last three playoff games as road favorites against Western Conference opponents following a win.
• The home team has won seven of the Thunder’s last eight playoff games.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven playoff games as road favorites following a win.
• The Suns have covered the spread in five of their last six games against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last 13 games following a home win.
• The Suns have lost each of their last eight playoff games against Northwest Division opponents.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games as road favorites against Pacific Division opponents.
• The Suns have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games at Mortgage Matchup Center against Thunder teams that held a winning record.

Total Points: Facts

• Each of the Suns’ last four Western Conference First Round games at Mortgage Matchup Center has gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Thunder’s last four games at Mortgage Matchup Center following a home win has gone OVER the total points line.

Phoenix Suns Player Facts

• Dillon Brooks ranks 37th amongst qualified players for FT% (84.2%) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Ajay Mitchell is one of only 12 players to have made 8+ field goals without a miss in a game this season.
• Isaiah Hartenstein leads all Thunder players for rebounds per 36 minutes (14.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Suns rank 2nd in the league for opponent three-point percentage this season (34.7%).
• The Suns rank 2nd in the league for Q3 opponent points per game this season (27.0).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (74.0%).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free throws made per game this season (16.2).

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns Prediction

The Thunder have ruled out Jalen Williams with a hamstring injury, with Isaiah Joe listed as a game-time decision for personal reasons, while the Suns are keeping an eye on Mark Williams, Jordan Goodwin and Grayson Allen, who are all listed as game-time decisions. The Thunder have enjoyed having pretty much everything go their way so far in this series and it’s no surprise to see them open as heavy road favorites for Game 3.

All the pressure is on the Suns to respond and make their mark in this series, but they are still banged up and I don’t think they have enough firepower to keep this one close. There’s every chance that the Thunder look past the Suns and lose their focus, but I don’t see that happening here. Give me the Thunder to continue their dominance with a comfortable win and cover here to go up 3-0 in the series.

Peter Tran's Pick: Oklahoma City -9.5