Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat Prediction 1/3/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Miami Heat duke it out at the Kaseya Center on Saturday night. Here’s a Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat Prediction. This article will include a Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat Pick.

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have cooled off a bit lately as they’ve dropped three of their past four games overall and they will be hoping to bounce back here after getting thrashed by the Hawks in a 126-102 road defeat on Wednesday. Anthony Edwards led the team with 30 points on 10 of 18 shooting, Julius Randle added 19 points while Johnny Juzang chipped in with 10 points off the bench.

As a team, the Timberwolves shot 43 percent from the field and 14 of 40 from the 3-point line as they failed to match the energy of the Hawks from the tipoff. They were always fighting a losing battle after getting outscored by 70-49 in the first half. Things didn’t get much better in the second half where they trailed by as many as 34 points before finishing with a flurry to keep the final margin somewhat respectable. 

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have been on a roll lately, as they’ve reeled off four straight wins and are coming into this one fresh off a 118-112 road win over the Pistons on Thursday. Norman Powell drained seven 3-pointers to lead the way with 36 points on 12 of 23 shooting, Jaime Jacquez Jr added 19 points and five assists off the bench while Andrew Wiggins chipped in with 17 points and eight rebounds.

As a team, the Heat shot 43 percent from the field and 14 of 39 from the 3-point line as they got off to a quick start thanks to Powell and poured in 63 points in the first half to take the early lead. They pounded the boards to rack up 15 offensive rebounds, which was enough to hold off a late charge from the Pistons. Kel’el Ware had a quiet game of just four points on one of six shooting while Nikola Jovic shot just one of 10 from the field for his five points. 

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Heat have won each of their last four games as home underdogs.
• The Timberwolves have lost seven of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Heat have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as home underdogs following a win.
• The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win

• The Timberwolves have won each of their last eight games against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back.
• The Heat have lost each of their last five games when playing with a rest disadvantage against the Timberwolves.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as home underdogs against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back.
• The Timberwolves have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games after losing as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of the Timberwolves’ last nine games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Heat’s last eight games as home underdogs following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Davion Mitchell has recorded seven games with 5+ assists and zero turnovers this season – most of any player in the league.
• Kel’el Ware is the only qualified player in the league to be leading their team in blocks per game (1.3) and three-point shooting percentage (45.3%) this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts

• Rudy Gobert ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (71.0%) this season.
• Donte DiVincenzo has recorded nine games with 3+ assists and zero turnovers this season – equal-most of any player in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Heat rank 1st in the league for field goal attempts per game this season (93.2).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.7).
• The Timberwolves rank 1st in the league for H2 win percentage this season (73.5%).
• The Timberwolves have used only four different starting fives this season – fewest in the league.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat Prediction

The Timberwolves are still missing Terrence Shannon Jr, while the Heat have ruled out Tyler Herro again with Pelle Larsson listed as questionable. The Timberwolves open as slight favorites on the road, which is understandable, but they’ve really been struggling lately despite being relatively healthy.

In contrast, the Heat has sprung back to life with four straight wins, and they would’ve taken plenty of confidence from their hard fought win over the Pistons in their last outing. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if the Timberwolves snapped out of their funk with a much-needed win here, but the Heat come into this meeting as the team in better form. I think they can get the job done at home in this spot.

Peter Tran's Pick: Miami +2.5