Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction 4/27/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets meet Monday in NBA Game 5 at the Ball Arena. Here’s a Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction. This article will include a Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Pick.

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview

The Minnesota Timberwolves look for a series win and to advance to the second round for a third straight season. The Timberwolves have won 6 of their last 8 games.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are averaging 112.3 points on 46.2 percent shooting and allowing 105.5 points on 40.1 percent shooting. Ayo Dosunmu is averaging 22.8 points and 2.8 rebounds, while Anthony Edwards is averaging 18.5 points and 3 assists. Julius Randle is the third double-digit scorer, and Jaden McDaniels is grabbing 7 rebounds. The Minnesota Timberwolves are shooting 33.9 percent from beyond the arc and 77.1 percent from the free-throw line. The Minnesota Timberwolves are allowing 28.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 48.8 rebounds per game.

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview

The Denver Nuggets need a win to save their season and force a game 6 on Thursday. The Nuggets have won 13 of their last 16 games.

The Denver Nuggets are averaging 105.5 points on 40.1 percent shooting and allowing 112.3 points on 46.2 percent shooting. Jamal Murray is averaging 26.5 points and 5 rebounds, while Nikola Jokic is averaging 25 points and 14.5 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is the third double-digit scorer, and Tim Hardaway Jr. is grabbing 4 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 28.5 percent from beyond the arc and 83.2 percent from the free-throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 33.9 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 42 rebounds per game.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

• The Nuggets have won 12 of their last 13 home games.
• The Timberwolves have lost each of their last four road games following a win.
• The Nuggets have covered the spread in six of their last seven playoff home games.
• The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road games against Northwest Division opponents following a win.

Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win

• The Timberwolves have won four of their last five games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
• The Nuggets have lost each of their last three playoff games as favorites against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.
• The Timberwolves have covered the spread in each of their last six night games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven night games against Northwest Division opponents.

Total Points: Facts

• Each of the Nuggets’ last five home games following a road loss has gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the Timberwolves’ last six Western Conference First Round games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

• Cameron Johnson ranks 8th amongst qualified players for 3P% (43.0%) this season.
• Aaron Gordon is one of only 11 players in the league to have made 10+ threes in a game this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts

• Naz Reid ranks 2nd amongst qualified Centers for three-pointers made per game (2.1) this season.
• Ayo Dosunmu ranks 6th amongst qualified players for 3P% (43.9%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nuggets rank 30th in the league for opponent turnovers per game this season (11.8).
• The Nuggets rank 1st in the league for three-point percentage this season (39.6%).
• The Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league for blocks per game this season (5.8).
• The Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league for opponent blocks per game this season (4.1).

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Injury Report

The Timberwolves will be without Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards. DiVincenzo tore his achilles in game 4, while Ant-Man suffered a bone bruise.

Peyton Watson is out for the Nuggets with a hamstring injury. Aaron Gordon is questionable with a calf issue.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction

On paper the Nuggets should win this game comfortably. They’re a veteran squad that usually beats the blood out of teams at home, and the Timberwolves are down their starting backcourt. However, this is a lot of points for a Nuggets team that’s watching Jokic struggle and is dealing with a hobbled Gordon. Since April 2021, the Timberwolves are 9-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog. Four of those covers were outright wins.

I expect the Nuggets to win, as the Timberwolves are missing a chunk of their reliable offense. However, this is a scrappy team that defends and is frustrating the hell out of the Nuggets. There are some dogs on this Minnesota squad. I want the points if forced to pick, but this isn’t my favorite game on the card.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5