Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Prediction 2/21/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat meet Saturday in NBA action at the Kaseya Center. Here’s a Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat prediction. This article will include a Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat pick.

Memphis Grizzlies Betting Preview

The Memphis Grizzlies lost to the Nuggets, beat the Jazz, and play the Kings next. The Grizzlies have lost 4 of their last 5 games.

The Memphis Grizzlies are averaging 115.3 points on 45.8 percent shooting and allowing 117.5 points on 46.9 percent shooting. Ty Jerome is averaging 19.7 points and 2.2 rebounds, while Ja Morant is averaging 19.5 points and 8.1 assists. Santi Aldama is the third double-digit scorer, and Cedric Coward is grabbing 6.2 rebounds. The Memphis Grizzlies are shooting 35.1 percent from beyond the arc and 79.7 percent from the free-throw line. The Memphis Grizzlies are allowing 36.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45 rebounds per game.

Miami Heat Betting Preview

The Miami Heat beat the Pelicans and Hawks, and they play the Bucks next. The Heat have split their last 10 games.

The Miami Heat are averaging 119.6 points on 46.1 percent shooting and allowing 117.2 points on 45.8 percent shooting. Norman Powell is averaging 23 points and 3.6 rebounds, while Tyler Herro is averaging 21.9 points and 2.7 assists. Bam Adebayo is the third double-digit scorer, and Andrew Wiggins is grabbing 5 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 36 percent from beyond the arc and 78.7 percent from the free-throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 34.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 46.9 rebounds per game.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Grizzlies have lost 28 of their last 32 games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Heat have won seven of their last eight games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Heat have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Grizzlies have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games against Southeast Division opponents following a win.

Why the Memphis Grizzlies will win

• The Heat have lost each of their last six home games following a win.
• The Grizzlies have won six of their last eight games as underdogs against the Heat.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games at Kaseya Center following a win.
• The road team has covered the spread in 11 of the Heat’s last 12 games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Grizzlies’ last five games against the Heat following a home win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Heat’s last four home games against Southwest Division opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Bam Adebayo ranks 10th amongst qualified players for rebounds per game (9.9) this season.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. is one of only 10 qualified Guards in the league shooting at least 50% from the field this season.

Memphis Grizzlies Player Facts

• Cedric Coward ranks 7th amongst qualified Guards for rebounds per game (6.2) this season.
• Ty Jerome leads all Grizzlies players for points per 36 minutes (35.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Heat rank 1st in the league for H1 points per game this season (61.7).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for pace this season (104.0).
• The Grizzlies are one of only two teams to record four or more wins when trailing by a margin of 10+ points at HT this season.
• The Grizzlies are one of only two teams to record five or more losses when leading by a margin of 10+ points at HT this season.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Injury Report

The Heat will be without Terry Rozier. Norman Powell and Keshad Johnson are questionable.

The Grizzlies will be without Brandon Clarke, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Zach Edey, Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Walter Clayton, Scotty Pippen Jr., Ja Morant, and Santi Aldama.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Prediction

The Heat got Herro back and looked great last night against the Hawks. The Grizzlies are severely undermanned and on the end of a back-to-back as well. At home the Heat should be big favorites. However, the Heat have a long habit of playing down to their competition. The Heat has also run hot and cold all season. I’m not being suckered in with this team. One minute the Heat are scoring 140 points, the next they’re struggling to crack 90. Nothing surprises me with this group. Give me the Grizzlies and the points.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Memphis Grizzlies +10.5