Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 6/5/25 NBA Picks

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview 

The Indiana Pacers went through their struggles early in the season, as they lost 15 of their first 25 games. They really didn’t start to look like contenders until they won 15 of their final 19 games of the regular season to finish with a 50-32 overall record. Even though they blew past a shorthanded Bucks team in the first round, few gave them much of a chance against the red-hot Cavaliers, who were dealing with injuries of their own. However, the Pacers needed just five games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, where they never looked in genuine danger after taking a 3-1 series lead.

Pascal Siakam was named Eastern Conference MVP with averages of 21.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. Tyrese Haliburton is averaging 18.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game. Myles Turner is averaging 15.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game. Aaron Nesmith has been solid with averages of 14.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. As a team, the Pacers are averaging 117.4 points during these playoffs while shooting 49.7 percent from the field and 40.1 percent from the 3-point line. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder have looked like a team on a mission from opening night as they won 11 of their first 13 games. They just never took their foot off the gas to finish with a franchise-record 68 wins for the season. The Thunder swept the Grizzlies with ease in the first round, before they outlasted the Nuggets in a thrilling seven-game series in the second round. But they were back at their best against the Timberwolves in the Western Conference, where they needed just five games to book their tickets to the NBA Finals.

The Thunder have been led by NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 29.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.9 assists during these playoffs. Jalen Williams is averaging 20.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. Chet Holmgren is averaging 16.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 9.2 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. As a team, the Thunder is averaging 117.1 points while shooting 46.4 percent from the field and 33.6 percent from the 3-point line.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last 18 night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Pacers have lost each of their three previous NBA Finals road games.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last nine night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Pacers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games when playing with a rest disadvantage.

Why the Indiana Pacers will win

• The Pacers have won six of their last seven games as road underdogs.
• The Thunder have lost five of their last six NBA Finals games.
• The Pacers have covered the spread in six of their last seven playoff road games.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Isaiah Joe ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (4.3) this season.
• Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.

Indiana Pacers Player Facts

• Ben Sheppard ranks 8th amongst qualified players for assist:turnover ratio (3.9) this season.
• Bennedict Mathurin ranks T9th in the league for fast break points (277) this season.

Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

The Pacers are still slightly shorthanded with Isaiah Jackson still injured and Jarace Walker, who will sit the first two games, while the Thunder are only missing Nikola Topic. These two squads met just twice in the regular season, with the Thunder winning by six points on Dec. 27 and by 21 points on Mar. 30. Both teams are so young and deep, but you have to give the edge to the Thunder, who have been the more consistent team all season.

They are 35-6 at home, and their strength on the defensive end has served them well so far. We have seen some big upsets already these playoffs, and there is always a chance that the referees swallow their whistles for this one. This could impact SGA’s ability to get to the free throw line, but I am sticking with the more reliable Thunder to get the job done. I don’t see a ton of value at the line, but I still think the Thunder draw first blood with a win and cover at home in Game 1. 

Peter Tran's Pick: Oklahoma City -9.5