Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 3/9/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Monday in NBA action at the Paycom Center. Here’s a Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction. This article will include a Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder pick.

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview

The Denver Nuggets beat the Lakers, lost to the Knicks, and play the Rockets next. The Nuggets have split their last 8 games.

The Denver Nuggets are averaging 120.4 points on 49.3 percent shooting and allowing 116.1 points on 46.8 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 28.8 points and 12.5 rebounds, while Jamal Murray is averaging 25.5 points and 4.3 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is the third double-digit scorer, and Peyton Watson is grabbing 4.9 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 39.3 percent from beyond the arc and 80.9 percent from the free-throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 35.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.2 rebounds per game.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Warriors and Knicks and then play the Celtics next. The Thunder have won 10 of their last 12 games.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 118.6 points on 48.1 percent shooting and allowing 107.6 points on 43.5 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.6 points and 6.4 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 17.5 points and 4.7 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer, and Ajay Mitchell is grabbing 3.5 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 36.1 percent from beyond the arc and 82.3 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 36.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.9 rebounds per game.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last 10 games at Paycom Center following a home win.
• The Nuggets have lost each of their last four road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in five of their last six games as home favorites against Northwest Division opponents following a win.
• The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

• The Nuggets have won each of their last eight games against Western Conference opponents after losing as favorites.
• The Thunder have lost two of their last three games as favorites against Northwest Division opponents following a win.
• The Nuggets have covered the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Nuggets’ last eight road games has gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the last four games between the Nuggets and Thunder has gone OVER the total points line.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

• Aaron Gordon is one of only 10 players in the league to have made 10+ threes in a game this season.
• Cameron Johnson ranks 7th amongst qualified forwards for 3P% (40.5%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (74.4%).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free throws made per game this season (16.5).
• The Nuggets rank 30th in the league for opponent turnovers per game this season (12.1).
• The Nuggets rank 1st in the league for three-point percentage this season (38.9%).

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report

The Thunder will be without Thomas Sorber, Isaiah Hartenstein, Branden Carlson, Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell. Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso are questionable.

The Nuggets will be without Peyton Watson. Jamal Murray is questionable.

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

The Thunder are going to get the benefit of the doubt because they’re the Thunder, but they’re also banged up and are just 31-33-1 ATS on the season. I’ve said it before but OKC isn’t the covering machine it was in years past. The Nuggets are as healthy as they’ve been in a while and they have 22 road wins this season. The underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 games between the Nuggets and Thunder. With key rotation players back in the mix, the Nuggets are legit title contenders. This line shouldn’t be what it is. Give me the points.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Denver Nuggets +7.5