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Pick details
| MATCHUP | Boston Celtics | Charlotte Hornets |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 6-2 | 3-6 |
| Spread | -9.5 -115 | +9.5 -105 |
| Moneyline | -378 | +300 |
| Total | Over 208.5 (-107) | Under 208.5 (-113) |
| Where | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC | |
| When | Friday, November 6, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EST | |
10–1 ATS to Start the NBA Season
The NBA has always been one of my best sports throughout my 30-year career, and I’m off to a 10–1 start against the spread this season. Now I’m sharing a top-rated NBA pick for free, along with the matchup analysis behind it.
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Matchup: Boston Celtics vs Charlotte Hornets
The pick: Charlotte Hornets against the spread. The line has been posted at the time of this writing and is anticipated to open with the Hornets priced as an 8.5-point underdog. As long as the price is between 3.5 and 9.5 points, this opportunity is valid.
This game is part of the NBA Cup Series taking place at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC starting at 7 EST, Friday.
The Research Supporting a Best Bet on the Hornets
Over my 30-year career I have created massive databases across all sports and hundreds of highly profitable and consistent betting algorithms and systems. This one is active for the Friday NBA card and supports a bet on the Hornets and has compiled a 58-19-1 ATS record good for 75% winning bets since 2017. The required situations are: Bet on underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points.
The team is struggling to win and getting outscored by their opponents by 9 or more points. They have not scored more than 105 points in each of their last three games.
Since 2017, The Pelicans are 9-5 ATS when scoring 105 or fewer points in two consecutive games and playing at home priced as a 2.5 or more-point underdog. In addition, if our dog is playing on 2 or more days of rest has seen them go 9-3 ATS for 75% winning bets.
The glass and the rim. Charlotte out-rebounds opponents 46.8 to 42.4 per game and blocks 5.1 shots to Boston’s 3.7. Moussa Diabate leads the team with 9.5 rebounds, and extra possessions are how a team shooting 40% stays in a game.
Make sure to check out John Ryan’s top premium plays for tonight!
Brandon Miller is averaging 23.5 points, within four of Jayson Tatum’s 27.0, and carried the offense while Kon Knueppel was out. Knueppel, who led the NBA with 273 threes as a rookie, is a game-time decision, and Coby White is back from a calf injury. Dennis Schroder adds 5.0 assists.
Boston is thinner than usual. Tatum, who leads Boston in both points and assists (27.0 and 7.9), is listed as resting. Payton Pritchard (eye) is a game-time decision, and Devin Carter is out with illness. Without its engine, an offense averaging 115.0 points on 46% shooting loses a lot.
Defense keeps it close. The Hornets allow 109.2 points per game, nearly the same as Boston’s 108.3. The Hornets will have a more favorable matchup that can lead to significantly more points.
Bottom line. If Tatum sits and Knueppel plays, the Hornets have the home court, the rebounding edge and a real chance to push Boston to the limit or even win.
From the Predictive Models
The projections call for the Hornets to score 111 or more points and have the better assist to turnover ratio than the Celtics. Since 2021, the Hornets are 18-13 SU (58%) and 23-6-2 ATS good for 79% winning bets. In home games priced as the underdog, the Pelicans are 17-10 SU and 21-4-2 ASTS good for 84% winning bets since 2021.
The Celtics are a money-burning 17-25 SU and 7-33-2 ATS for just 18% winning bets when they have allowed 111 or more points and had the worse assist-to-turnover ratio in games played since 2021.
LIVE Betting Strategy
Consider betting 75% of your normal betting amount preflop and then look to add the remaining 25% after a Celtics scoring run of 10+ points or you see the LIVE line get to 12.5 points during the first half action only. Betting in the second half requires you to be correct quickly, whereas first half live bets have far more time to be a winner.
