Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction 5/11/25 NBA Picks

Denver Nuggets (50-32) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14)

Game Info: Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 3:30 pm (Ball Arena)

Betting Odds: Denver Nuggets +6.5 -- Over/Under: 227 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: ABC

The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets collide in a pivotal Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals at the Ball Arena on Sunday night. Here’s a Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction. This article will include a Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview 

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be hoping to square up the series again after coming up short against the Nuggets in a painful 113-104 overtime road defeat in Game 3 on Friday. Jalen Williams led the team with 32 points and five assists on 11 of 21 shooting, Chet Holmgren tallied 18 points with 16 rebounds and three blocks, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 18 points with 13 rebounds and seven assists while Isaiah Hartenstein chipped in with 10 points and 10 rebounds.

As a team, the Thunder shot just 38 percent from the field and nine of 35 from the 3-point line as they led by three points in the final minute of the fourth quarter. The Nuggets forced overtime thanks to another clutch shot from Aaron Gordon. The Thunder had their chance to atone for their mistakes in overtime, but managed just two points in the extra period, with Hartenstein missing open shots down the stretch. 

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets will be feeling pretty good, as they are now aiming to take a commanding 3-1 series lead after outlasting the Thunder in a thrilling 113-104 overtime win in Game 3. Jamal Murray led the team with 27 points, eight assists and four steals, Aaron Gordon added 22 points with eight rebounds and five assists, Michael Porter Jr added 21 points while Nikola Jokic racked up 20 points with 16 rebounds and six assists.

As a team, the Nuggets shot just 45 percent from the field and 16 of 40 from the 3-point line as they rallied in the fourth quarter to force overtime thanks to a clutch shot from Gordon. Before they dominated overtime by 11-2 to make it look easy in the end despite a poor shooting night from Jokic who shot just eight of 25 from the field and zero of 10 from the 3-point line. 

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

  • The underdogs have won each of the last six games between the Thunder and Nuggets at Ball Arena.
  • The Thunder have lost each of their last six Western Conference Semifinals road games against Northwest Division opponents.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last 10 games between the Thunder and Nuggets at Ball Arena.
  • The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

  • The Thunder have won each of their last seven games against Northwest Division opponents after losing as favorites.
  • The Nuggets have lost six of their last seven games after winning as underdogs.
  • The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last six road games against the Nuggets following a loss.
  • The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four day games after coming off overtime.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

  • Russell Westbrook is one of only two players to have recorded a triple-double off the bench this season.
  • Jamal Murray ranks 11th amongst qualified players for FT% (88.6%) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

  • Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.
  • Luguentz Dort ranks 26th amongst qualified players for 3P% (41.2%) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction

The Thunder might still be kicking themselves after wasting a great opportunity to take the lead in the series, as they just went ice-cold in the overtime period to allow the Nuggets to slip away in the end. Gilgeous-Alexander had his moments earlier in the game, but overall he had a rough outing as he missed his final seven shot attempts and did not attempt a field goal in overtime. The pressure is on the Thunder to respond and avoid falling further behind in the series, but they are going to need Gilgeous-Alexander to show up big time. It's hard to imagine the Nuggets' Jokic having another poor shooting night, so while I like the Thunder to get the win, I feel that the Nuggets will do enough to at least get the cover in the end. 

Peter’s Pick Denver +6.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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