Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Prediction 2/28/25 NBA Picks

Miami Heat (27-30) vs Indiana Pacers (33-24)

Game Info: Friday, February 28, 2025 at 8:00 pm (Kaseya Center)

Betting Odds: Miami Heat +4 -- Over/Under: 225.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: FanDuel SN Sun

The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat meet Friday in NBA action at the Kaseya Center. Here’s an Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Prediction. This article will include an Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Pick.

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview 

The Indiana Pacers beat the Raptors, lost to the Nuggets, and they play the Bulls, Rockets, and Hawks next. The Pacers have won four of their last five games and are barely holding onto that fourth seed for home court in the first round. 

The Indiana Pacers are averaging 116.5 points on 48.9 percent shooting and allowing 115.8 points on 47.4 percent shooting. Pascal Siakam is averaging 20.4 points and 7.3 rebounds, while Tyrese Haliburton is averaging 18.1 points and 3.5 rebounds. Benedict Mathurin is the third double-digit scorer and Myles Turner is grabbing 6.5 rebounds. The Indiana Pacers are shooting 36.7 percent from beyond the arc and 78.8 percent from the free-throw line. The Indiana Pacers are allowing 35.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 41.4 rebounds per game.

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

The Miami Heat lost to the Bucks, split with the Hawks, and they play the Knicks, Wizards, and Cavs next. The Heat look for two straight wins for the first time since January 25-27. 

The Miami Heat are averaging 109.7 points on 45.3 percent shooting and allowing 110.7 points on 46.2 percent shooting. Tyler Herro is averaging 24 points and 5.5 rebounds, while Andrew Wiggins is averaging 18.4 points and 5.4 rebounds. Bam Adebayo is the third double-digit scorer and Terry Rosier is grabbing 4 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 35.6 percent from beyond the arc and 79.3 percent from the free throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 35.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.1 rebounds per game.

Why the Miami Heat will win

  • The Pacers have lost 11 of their last 14 games as road favorites following a win.
  • The underdogs have won six of the last eight games between the Pacers and Heat at Kaseya Center.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in nine of the last 10 games between the Pacers and Heat at Kaseya Center.
  • The Pacers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against Southeast Division opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Indiana Pacers will win

  • The Pacers have won each of their last seven night games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Heat have lost each of their last six night games against Central Division opponents.
  • The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six night games against Central Division opponents.
  • The Pacers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 games against the Heat at Kaseya Center.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Heat rank 1st in the league for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (18.2).
  • The Heat are one of only two teams to lose a game when leading by 20+ points at HT this season.
  • The Pacers rank 29th in the league for offensive rebounds per game this season (9.0).
  • The Pacers are one of only two teams to win a game when trailing by 20+ points after Q1 this season.

Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Injury Report

The Miami Heat will be without Nikola Jovic and Dru Smith. Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins are questionable.

The Pacers will be without Isaiah Jackson. T.J. McConnell is questionable with an ankle injury. 

Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Prediction

I still don’t trust the Miami Heat, a team that’s struggled to reach 100 points all year and has multiple quarters where it's scored single-digit points. I also don’t want the Heat if Bam and Wiggins aren’t going to play. Check the injury report before betting. Either way, the Pacers are one of the top-scoring teams in the NBA and if those shots are falling, the Heat have shown time and time again that they don’t have the offensive firepower to counter. I’ll lay the points with the Pacers.

Randy’s Pick Indiana Pacers -4

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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