Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat Player Prop Picks 12/12/24

This matchup between the Toronto Raptors and the Miami Heat on December 12th, 2024, promises to be a compelling contest between two teams looking to solidify their standings. The Heat, coming off a strong stretch of games, have been buoyed by the stellar performances of Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, and Tyler Herro. Adebayo’s recent triple-double performance highlights his versatility, while Butler and Herro continue to provide scoring and leadership. Miami’s reliance on three-point shooting was evident in their previous game against the Raptors, where they attempted a season-high 54 shots from beyond the arc, making 21.

The Raptors, however, have struggled with consistency and bench production. Despite strong individual performances from Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett, Toronto’s lack of scoring depth remains a concern. Injuries to key players, including Gradey Dick and Kelly Olynyk, further compound their challenges. Toronto’s defense will need to address Miami’s perimeter shooting to stand a chance at victory.

Davion Mitchell Over 3.5 Assists

Davion Mitchell has showcased notable playmaking ability. He is averaging 5.1 assists per game over 24 appearances, reflecting an increased role in facilitating the offense compared to previous seasons. His assist percentage stands at 21.9%, indicating his contributions to team scoring opportunities when on the floor. Additionally, Mitchell is averaging 8.9 assists per 48 minutes, a significant metric showcasing his efficiency when given extended playing time. However, his assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.56 suggests room for improvement in ball security.

With Scottie Barnes being out for several weeks due to an ankle injury the Raptors will lean on Davion Mitchell to facilitate the ball. We saw earlier in the season when Scottie Barnes was out Davion Mitchell cleared this line of 3.5 assists with ease. The Heat are giving up 26.7 assists per game to opposing teams which is well above the league average. There’s a lot of value in taking the over on Mitchell’s assist tonight with where this line is set at. 

Tyler Herro Over 21.5 Points

Tyler Herro has been a standout scorer for the Miami Heat so far this season. He is averaging 24.2 points per game while shooting 47.7% from the field and an impressive 42.2% from beyond the arc. Herro is taking about 9.9 three-point attempts per game, connecting on 4.2 of them on average. Additionally, he is converting free throws at an 87.2% clip. His offensive efficiency is reflected in a true shooting percentage of 63.2%, showcasing his scoring versatility​.

Tyler Herro is coming off a monstrous game against the Cleveland Cavaliers where he dropped 34 points. We’ve seen him have 30-plus points in three of his last five games. Now he’s going against this Toronto Raptors team that has struggled to play defense on the perimeter. The Raptors are giving up 117.2 points per game to opposing teams which is the sixth most in the whole league. I expect the Miami Heat’s leading scorer to have another big night. 

RJ Barrett Over 22.5 Points

RJ Barrett has shown significant improvement in his scoring during this season. As of now, he is averaging 23.6 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field. His three-point efficiency stands at 34.9%, with 2.0 makes on 5.9 attempts per game. Barrett has also been effective from the free-throw line, converting 71.0% of his attempts. His scoring contributions have been highlighted by several standout performances, including a 39-point game against the Indiana Pacers and a 37-point effort against the Miami Heat. These games have demonstrated his ability to be a go-to scorer for the Toronto Raptors.

We saw earlier this season when Scottie Barnes was out for this Raptors team RJ Barrett had to step up and be this team’s leading scorer. In his last game against the Knicks, he put up 30 points. These teams just played against each other on December 1st and in that game, RJ Barrett had 37 points. Until Scotty Barnes gets back in the lineup I’ll be looking to attack RJ Barrett’s point lines.