Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 9/11/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles meet on Thursday in MLB action from Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Orioles vs Pirates pick. We will examine:

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ recent form and player performance

The Baltimore Orioles’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pirates

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Orioles

Recent betting trends in games played between Baltimore and Pittsburgh

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Pirates and Orioles game.

Another Bad Offensive Game for the Pirates

It was another bad offensive game for the Pirates on Wednesday, and in this game, they gotta get the bat going earlier. On Wednesday, the Pirates finished with two hits and one run. The bullpen also blew the lead. Spencer Horwitz hit a home run in the 4th inning. It was another wasted Paul Skenes start as he went five innings giving up two hits and zero runs. 

The Pirates are averaging 3.61 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.09 runs per game. The offense is ranked 30th in the league while the pitching is ranked 7th. They have a negative run differential of -0.48, which is 22nd. Bryan Reynolds has hit 15 home runs and driven in 70 RBIs so far. Getting the start for the Pirates will be Johan Oviedo who sits with a 2-0 record and an ERA of 2.70. In his last start against the Milwaukee Brewers, he went five innings giving up one hit, and one run. On Friday, the Pirates will continue their road trip against the Washington Nationals. 

Why the Pirates Will Beat the Orioles

The Orioles have lost each of their last five games as favorites after going to extra innings.
The Pirates have won each of their last three games as underdogs following a road loss.
The Pirates have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as underdogs following an extra innings loss.
The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites.
The Pirates have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against American League opponents.

Orioles Come Out Ahead

The Orioles bats weren’t good enough for most of the game on Wednesday, but they finally got them going late, and they ended up winning 2-1. The Orioles outhit the Pirates 7-2, but still only managed two runs. Right fielder Dylan Beavers had a strong game finishing with two hits and one RBI. Jackson Holliday also finished with a hit and an RBI. Tyler Wells got the start and he went 6.2 innings giving up one hit and one run. 

The Orioles are averaging 4.33 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.89 runs per game. The offense is ranked 18th while the pitching is ranked 25th. Gunnar Henderson has hit 16 home runs and driven in 61 RBIs so far this season. Getting the start for the Orioles will be Cade Povich and he sits with a 3-7 record and an ERA of 5.16. Against the San Diego Padres in his last start he went five innings giving up seven hits and four runs. 

Why the Orioles Will Beat the Pirates

The Orioles have won seven of their last eight games against National League opponents.
The Pirates have lost each of their last five games.
The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Thursday day games.
The Orioles have covered the run line in five of their last six games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

The Pirates haven’t been great this season, but they are still going to have no issue getting the job done here. Povich sits with an ERA of 5.16 and in his last start he gave up seven hits and four runs. The Pirates are averaging 3.61 runs per game, but it’s not going to take a whole lot of runs to get the job done here. Oviedo is going to have another dominant start, and that will be enough for a 3-1 or 4-1 type of game. The Orioles have lost each of their last five games as favorites after going to extra innings. Back the Pirates on the money line to cash here with ease.