MLB Player Prop Picks 07/25/2025 Picks (American League Pitchers)

Gavin Williams Over 5.5 K’s

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals 8:10 PM EST

Gavin Williams took a significant step forward in 2025, solidifying his place in Cleveland’s rotation. Across 20 starts and 104.0 innings, he posted a 6–4 record with a 3.54 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and racked up 106 strikeouts for a 9.1 K/9 rate, an impressive strikeout total that leads the Guardians this season. At the plate, opponents averaged an 89.8 mph exit velocity, recorded a 40.6% hard-hit rate, and barreled just 8.9% of balls, which are all solid contact metrics. He’s coming off a great start where he logged 11 strikeouts against the Athletics, and two starts before that, he logged 8 strikeouts against the Tigers. He’ll be up against the Royals, who’ve been extremely inconsistent at the plate and have been a heavy strikeout team as well.

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Adrian Houser Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox 7:40 PM EST

Adrian Houser has enjoyed a remarkable turnaround in 2025 after signing with the Chicago White Sox in May. In 10 starts, he’s posted a 5–2 record with an exceptional 1.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 62.0 innings of work, tallying 44 strikeouts and issuing just 19 walks. Over his last seven outings, he worked 43.2 innings with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, and over his last 10, his 1.89 ERA held steady across 62 innings. He’s allowed only two home runs in that span, which is among the lowest rates in baseball. Until Houser slows down, I’m looking to ride this hot streak. Even though he’s going up against a tough Cubs lineup, this earned runs line is too high. 

Dean Kremer Over 4.5 K’s

Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies 7:05 PM EST

Kremer has made 20 appearances, including 19 starts, logging 115.1 innings. He posted an 8–7 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, striking out 94 hitters (19.6% K-rate) and walking just 6.3%. While he showed early-season volatility, he rebounded and finished the 1st half of the season strong with multiple quality starts. I’ve been specifically impressed with his strikeout abilities lately. Kremer has recorded 5+ K’s in 4 of his last 5 starts. We’ve also seen Kremer go far in a lot of these games, which has directly correlated to his strikeout numbers. I don’t see him slowing down in this one, going against the Rockies who’ve been terrible at the plate, especially when playing away from Colorado.