MLB Player Prop Picks 07/09/2025 Picks (American League Pitchers)

Kris Bubic Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates 7:40 PM EST

Kris Bubic has emerged as one of the American League’s most reliable pitchers this season, earning his first All-Star nod. Through 16 starts and 96 innings, he’s compiled a 6–6 record with a 2.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 101 strikeouts, ranking him 6th in ERA and tied for 27th in strikeouts in MLB. This marks a remarkable transformation following Tommy John surgery. Some recent outings have seen slight regression, as of late June. I think we see the Bubic from the beginning of the season in this start against the Pirates. The Pirates have been horrible on the road this season and have been especially bad against lefties. Bubic will deal in this game. 

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Kumar Rocker Under 4.5 K’s
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels 9:38 PM EST

Kumar Rocker, the No. 3 overall pick in 2022, made five starts before being placed on the 15-day injured list with a right-shoulder impingement in late April. In those outings, he went 1–3 with an 8.10 ERA over 17 innings, highlighting inconsistency typical for a rookie adjusting to MLB hitters. After returning from injury, Rocker added four more starts, finishing the season with a 3–4 record, a 6.13 ERA, 39.2 innings pitched, 37 strikeouts, and 12 walks, resulting in a WHIP of 1.54. Rocker’s performance reflects a clear home/road split: at home, he posted a 2.35 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 23 innings, but on the road, he struggled significantly with a 9.41 ERA and 2.09 WHIP across 22 innings. He’s facing this Angels team that has been seeing the ball well lately and has a lot of power in this lineup. I expect Rocker to get hit up early & often in this game. 

Tomoyuki Sugano Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets 6:35 PM EST

Tomoyuki Sugano has settled into a full-time role as a starting pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles during the 2025 season. Over 17 starts and 93.1 innings, he has compiled a 6–5 record with a 4.44 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and 57 strikeouts. These numbers mark a solid debut in MLB after his dominant NPB career, showcasing his ability to maintain control and rack up quality innings. However, in his most recent outings, he’s faced some regression, with a 6.75 ERA over his last 7 starts (34.2 IP) and a 1.79 WHIP, a sign that opposing hitters have begun to adjust. He gave up 6 earned runs in his last start against the Rangers, and the start before that, he gave up 7 earned runs against the Rays. He now has to play a potent Mets offense in very hitter-friendly weather conditions. I don’t expect this to be the start Sugano bounces back in.