Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction MLB Picks 6/11/24

Mets are Playing Slightly Better

The New York Mets are 28-36 this season and they have won four of their last five games. New York is coming off of a series split with the Phillies, where they won one game and lost one game. Prior to that series, the Mets swept the Nationals in three games, split four games with the Diamondbacks, and lost all three against the Dodgers. New York is 6-3 in their last nine games, but they are fourth in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.26 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 280 runs with a .242 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .240 with 14 home runs and 32 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York has scored at least five runs in six of their last eight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Jesus Luzardo, who is 2-5 with a 5.30 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 56.0 innings pitched this season. Luzardo has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts, but has allowed 12 earned runs and 16 hits in his last two outings. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Tylor Megill, who is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 21.0 innings pitched this year. Megill has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, but allowed four earned runs against Washington last time out. 

Why the New York Mets will win

The Marlins have lost each of their last six road games against NL East opponents.The Mets have won seven of their last eight games at Citi Field against NL East opponents that held a losing record.The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Tuesday night games against NL East opponents.The Mets have covered the run line each of their last four games against National League opponents that held a losing record.The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Marlins' last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.Each of the Mets' last five games as home favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last three games as favorites.The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last six Tuesday games against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction 

New York comes into this series eight games below .500 on the year, but they have played better recently and their offense is coming to life. The Mets are 13-22 at home this season, while the Marlins are just 10-18 on the road. Miami has really struggled over the last week and their pitching staff is not getting it done. The Marlins will turn to Luzardo in this game, who has been good for most of the season, but was shelled last time out. The Mets are going with Megill, who has been decent in limited work. This New York offense is finally scoring runs with some consistency and my Miami Marlins vs New York Mets prediction is for the Mets to get the win.