Vermont vs UMBC Prediction 3/14/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Vermont Catamounts and the UMBC Retrievers meet Saturday in America East Tournament college basketball action from Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena. Here’s a Vermont vs UMBC prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Vermont vs UMBC pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Vermont Catamounts Betting Preview

The Catamounts were able to open the year on an 8-7 run, then won six of the next seven games with a lone loss to Albany in the middle. Following losses to NJIT and Maine, Vermont beat New Hampshire, Binghamton and Bryant before a loss to UMBC. It’s been wins over NJIT, UMass Lowell, Albany, Bryant and NJIT since then. That gives the Catamounts a 22-11 overall record.

In the NJIT matchup back on Tuesday the Catamounts were looking pretty good as they left the floor after the first half on a 26-18 advantage. Vermont added a 37-36 run the rest of the way and powered out the 63-54 victory in the end. Topping the scorers were TJ Hurley and Sean Blake, each with 14 points and five boards. Noah Barnett and TJ Long added 11 points apiece.

UMBC Retrievers Betting Preview

Over on the UMBC side, they opened the year on a 9-6 run, then hit a 3-2 stretch with wins over Binghamton, NJIT and UMass Lowell. It’s been all wins since then, as the Retrievers have taken out Albany, Binghamton, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Albany, Bryant, UMass Lowell, NJIT, New Hampshire and UMass Lowell on the way to a 23-8 record in the books.

Matched up against UMass Lowell back on Tuesday the Retrievers were sitting in the locker room looking up at a 43-29 edge on the scoreboard. UMBC closed out the game with a 48-40 advantage in the second half, finishing off a 91-69 victory in the end. The Retrievers were led by Jah’likai King with 24 points and four rebounds while Ace Valentine added 15 points.

Vermont Catamounts @ UMBC Retrievers Betting Trends: March 14, 2026

Why the UMBC Retrievers will win

• UMBC has won each of its last 11 games against Conference opponents.

Why the Vermont Catamounts will win

• Vermont has won 30 of its last 31 Saturday road games against the America East Conference.
• UMBC has lost the first half in each of its last three Conference Tournament games against Vermont.

Matchup/League Facts

• UMBC ranks 6th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (67.5%).
• UMBC ranks 8th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (14.9).
• Vermont ranks 22nd among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal attempts per game this season (54.0).
• Vermont ranks 26th among Division 1 teams for opponent rebounds per game this season (31.1).

Vermont vs UMBC Prediction

I’ll stick with UMBC, but you could call it either way. The Retrievers shot very well (54.1 percent) from the field in their win over UMass Lowell while giving up just 36.2 percent on the other side. UMBC had just six turnovers and scored 22 points off 11 River Hawks miscues. The Retrievers have won 11 straight games now and they’ve scored 84 or more points in four consecutive outings.

These teams split the season series, with the home team winning each time. Vermont got one 64-55 on January 29, and UMBC returned the favor 75-62 on February 19. In that home victory the Retrievers didn’t shoot well from the field (38.6 percent) but they only allowed 34.9 percent on defense. UMBC saved themselves with 42.3 percent (11-of-26) from outside and 80 percent (20-of-25) from the line along with a 42-34 rebounding edge. I’d like to see that shooting percentage come up this time, but I think UMBC has a great shot at another victory here.

Andrew Jett's Pick: UMBC Retrievers -2.5