UT Arlington vs Tarleton Prediction 3/5/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The UT Arlington Mavericks and the Tarleton Texans meet Thursday in college basketball action from the EECU Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Tarleton Texans prediction.

UT Arlington Mavericks Recap

The UT Arlington Mavericks come into this game looking to shake off a 68-56 loss at the hands of Cal Baptist last time out to sit at 15-13 this season. After this game, UT Arlington will close out the regular season with a game at Abilene Christian.

Mavericks Lose 7 Of Last 8

Raysean Seamster leads the Mavericks in scoring and rebounding with 13.5 PPG and 6.6 RPG along with 2.1 RPG while Marcell McCreary has 13.4 PPG with 5 RPG as the only other double-digit scorer for UT Arlington so far this season. Cash Chavis has 9.6 PPG with 2.4 RPG and a team-high 4 APG to lead the Mavericks in assists so far this season. As a team, UT Arlington is averaging 72.2 PPG on 45.1% shooting from the field, 30.2% from three and 71.6% from the foul line this season. 

Tarleton Texans Recap

The Tarleton Texans come into this game looking to shake off an 82-67 loss at the hands of Cal Baptist in their last game.

Texans Drop 3rd Game In A Row

Dior Johnson leads the Texans in scoring with 23.6 PPG while Cam McDowell has 13.9 PPG with 3.3 RPG as the only other double-digit scorer for Tarleton so far this season. Freddy Hicks has 9.7 PPG with team-highs of 5.7 RPG and 2.2 APG as well this year. Chris Mpaka has 8.1 PPG with 5.3 RPG as well on the year. As a team, Tarleton is averaging 75.7 PPG on 45.5% shooting from the field, 31.7% from three and 75.5% from the foul line this season.

UT Arlington Mavericks @ Tarleton State Texans Betting Trends: March 5, 2026

Why the Tarleton State Texans will win

• UT Arlington has lost seven of its last eight games.
• The home team has won five of Tarleton State’s last six games.
• Tarleton State has won the first half in each of its last five games against UT Arlington.

Why the UT Arlington Mavericks will win

• UT Arlington has won four of its last five games when playing with a rest advantage.
• Tarleton State has lost each of its last three games.
• Tarleton State has lost the first half in four of its last five night games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Tarleton State’s last four games have produced a total of 149+ points.
• Four of UT Arlington’s last five games have produced a total of 130 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Tarleton State ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game this season (17.7).
• Tarleton State ranks 365th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (14.4).
• UT Arlington ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point percentage this season (27.3%).
• UT Arlington ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (4.7).

UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Tarleton Texans Prediction

I’m on Tarleton here. I think home court is going to be the difference for the Texans here as I’m not really going out of my way to back UT Arlington in a spot like this. I think the Texans get up for this game on senior night, and I think that the Texans add to Arlington’s misery here. Give me Tarleton.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Tarleton -1.5