Tarleton vs California Baptist Prediction 2/28/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Tarleton Texans and California Baptist Lancers meet Saturday in college basketball action at the Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center. Here’s a Tarleton vs. California Baptist prediction. This article will include a Tarleton vs. California Baptist pick.

Tarleton Texans Betting Preview

The Tarleton Texans lost to Utah Tech and Utah Valley, and they play UT Arlington next. Tarleton has lost 10 of its last 13 games.

The Tarleton Texans are averaging 75.3 points on 45.6 percent shooting and allowing 72.8 points on 44.7 percent shooting. Dior Johnson is averaging 23.6 points and 1.4 assists, while Cam McDowell is averaging 13.9 points and 3.3 rebounds. Freddy Hicks is grabbing 5.5 rebounds and Chris Mpaka is dishing 0.2 assists. The Tarleton Texans are shooting 31.3 percent from beyond the arc and 75.4 percent from the free throw line. The Tarleton Texans are allowing 34.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 28.9 rebounds per game.

California Baptist Lancers Betting Preview

The California Baptist Lancers lost to Utah Valley and beat UT Arlington, and they play Abilene Christian next. Cal Baptist has won 10 of its last 12 games.

The California Baptist Lancers are averaging 74.7 points on 42.2 percent shooting and allowing 71.2 points on 41.8 percent shooting. Dominique Daniels Jr. is averaging 22 points and 4 rebounds, while Martel Williams is averaging 13.3 points and 4.8 rebounds. Jayden Jackson is dishing out 1.9 assists and Devon Malcolm is grabbing 3.6 rebounds. The California Baptist Lancers are shooting 32.2 percent from beyond the arc and 71.8 percent from the free throw line. The California Baptist Lancers are allowing 30.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 38.2 rebounds per game.

Why the California Baptist Lancers will win

• California Baptist has won each of its last 17 games at the Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Tarleton State has lost six of its last seven road games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Tarleton State has lost the first half in three of its last four night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the Tarleton State Texans will win

• Tarleton State has won three of its last four night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Total Points: Facts

• Six of California Baptist’s last seven night games have produced a total of 137 or fewer points.
• Four of Tarleton State’s last five road games against non-AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 135 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• California Baptist ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point percentage this season (29.7%).
• California Baptist ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goal attempts per game this season (18.6).
• Tarleton State ranks 364th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goals made per game this season (4.7).
• Tarleton State ranks 364th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (14.6).

Tarleton vs California Baptist Prediction

Tarleton has had moments this season and has four road wins, but nothing with this team has been consistent. California Baptist isn’t perfect and has had recent issues covering numbers, but it wins the games it’s supposed to win and that usually means a cover or two will come along the way. California Baptist beat Tarleton earlier this month. At home it should be no different. I have little interest in Tarleton, especially on the road. Give me Cal Baptist and the chalk.

Randy Chambers's Pick: California Baptist -7.5