South Dakota State vs St. Thomas – Minnesota Prediction 3/5/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits will meet on Thursday night in a Summit League Tournament quarterfinal at the Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies Betting Preview

The St. Thomas Tommies enter Thursday evening’s contest with a 23–8 win‑loss record, including a 12–4 mark in conference play and a rather impressive 14-1 record at home. St. Thomas-Minnesota has compiled wins over Omaha, North Dakota State, Kansas City and Soth Dakota, while losing games to Denver and North Dakota.

More recently, in the St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies 74–69 victory over the South Dakota State Jackrabbits last month, St. Thomas guard Nick Janowski tallied 21 points (6 of 13 shooting from the field: 8 of 10 shooting from the free-throw line), 6 rebounds, 3 assists and 1 block showcasing his ability to lead the Tommies backcourt.   

The St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies are averaging 82.5 points (38th in nation) on 51 percent shooting from the field and 36.8 percent shooting from three-point range (36th in country) per game. Shifting our focus to the defensive side of the basketball, the Tommies are allowing opponents 73.8 points per contest.  

Sophomore guard Nolan Minessale leads the St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies averaging 19.8 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.4 assists on 51.2 percent shooting from the field per game.  Freshman guard Nick Janowski provides the Tommies further backcourt depth averaging 16.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 0.6 steals per contest.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits Betting Preview

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits enter Thursday’s contest with a 14–17 record, including a 7–9 mark in conference play and a 7-8 record on the road. South Dakota State has amassed wins over Kansas City, North Dakota, and Oral Roberts, while dropping games to South Dakota and North Dakota State.

In the South Dakota State Jackrabbits 91–83 win over North Dakota last month, South Dakota State forward Matthew Mors accumulated 18 points (7 of 10 shooting from the field: 2 of 3 shooting from three-point range), 7 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal.  

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits average 74.6 points on 45.7 percent shooting from the field and 34.6 percent shooting from beyond the arc per game. Defensively, the Jackrabbits are allowing 74.3 points per contest.

Sophomore guard Joe Sayler leads the South Dakota State Jackrabbits averaging 14.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1 steal per game. Sophomore center Damon Wilkinson contributes 13.9 points 6.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1 block per contest providing the Jackrabbits with a strong interior presence.

Why the St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies will win

 •            Offensive efficiency. The St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies are averaging 82.5 points (38th in nation) on 51 percent shooting from the field and 36.8 percent shooting from three-point range (36th in country) per game.

•             Home court edge. The St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies have amassed a 14-1 record at home this season.

•             Confidence. The St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies defeated the Jackrabbits earlier this season.

Why the South Dakota State Jackrabbits will win

•             Backcourt play. Sophomore guard Joe Sayler leads the South Dakota State Jackrabbits averaging 14.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1 steal per game.

•             Momentum. The South Dakota State Jackrabbits have won two of the team’s last three games played this season, including a dominant 73-59 victory over Kansas City six days ago.

St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies vs. South Dakota State Prediction

St. Thomas-Minnesota’s recent form and defensive stability give the Tommies a clean path to controlling this contest. Considering the two teams in this matchup, the Tommies have been the more reliable side on both ends of the floor. With that said, St. Thomas-Minnesota’s current momentum, scoring balance and defensive consistency give them the stronger path to covering the points (5.5) here. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the St. Thomas Tommies to cover the 5.5 points in this game.

Hans Geevers's Pick: St. Thomas-Minnesota -5.5