Mississippi State vs Auburn Prediction 3/11/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Auburn Tigers meet Wednesday in college basketball action from the Bridgestone Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers prediction.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Recap

The Mississippi State Bulldogs come into the conference tournament as the 13-seed, finishing the year 13-18 overall including a 5-13 mark in SEC conference play. 

Bulldogs Looking To Spring Upset

Josh Hubbard leads Mississippi State in scoring and assists with 22.1 PPG and 3.6 APG along with 2.5 RPG while Jayden Epps has 13.7 PPG as the only other double-digit scorer for Mississippi State up to this point in the year. Ja’Borri McGhee has 8.5 PPG with 2.2 RPG and Quincy Ballard’s also chipped in 6.5 PPG and 6 RPG while Achor Achor has 6.1 PPG and a team-high 6.2 RPG to lead the Bulldogs on the glass. As a team, Mississippi State is averaging 78.2 PPG on 45.2% shooting from the field, 32.6% from three and 66.8% from the foul line this season.

Auburn Tigers Recap

The Auburn Tigers come into this game as the 12-seed, finishing the year at 16-15 overall including a 7-11 mark in SEC conference play. 

Tigers Looking To Hold It Down Under Pearl Jr.

Keyshawn Hall leads the Tigers in scoring and rebounding with 20.4 PPG and 6.9 RPG along with 2.7 APG while Kevin Overton has 13.3 PPG with 3.3 RPG and Tahaad Pettiford has 15.2 PPG with a team-high 3.6 APG to lead the Tigers in assists. KeShawn Murphy has 10.6 PPG with 6.8 RPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers up to this point in the year and Elyjah Freeman has 9.5 PPG with 4.7 RPG as well this season. As a team, Auburn is averaging 83.5 PPG on 46.2% shooting from the field, 33.9% from three and 74.9% from the foul line this season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers Betting Trends: March 11, 2026

Why the Auburn Tigers will win

• Auburn has won 14 of its last 15 games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
• Mississippi State has lost each of its last six day games.
• Mississippi State has lost the first half in each of its last seven games played at neutral venues.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Mississippi State has won each of its last five games at Bridgestone Arena against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Auburn has lost eight of its last 10 games.
• Auburn has lost the first half in seven of its last eight games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Auburn’s last 14 games against Conference opponents at neutral venues have produced a total of 153 or fewer points.
• Each of Mississippi State’s last 10 day games at a neutral venue have produced a total of 151 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Auburn ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (20.4).
• Auburn ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for free throw attempts per game this season (27.2).
• Mississippi State ranks 359th among Division 1 teams for opponent field goal attempts per game this season (64.8).
• Mississippi State ranks 20th among Division 1 teams for field goal attempts per game this season (63.0).

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers Prediction

I’m on Mississippi State here. The Bulldogs haven’t played all that well for much of conference play, but I think they’re good enough here to give Auburn some fits. The Tigers just looked dead down the stretch for much of conference play, and I think the Bulldogs are live to win this game but they cover at the very least. Give me the points with Mississippi State.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Mississippi State +7.5