Air Force vs UNLV Prediction 3/12/25 College Basketball Picks

The Air Force Falcons are facing the UNLV Rebels on Wednesday, March 12th at the Thomas & Mack Center, in this Mountain West first-round matchup between the 6th seed and the 11th seed of the conference. The winner of this single-elimination game will face Utah State in the quarterfinals on Thursday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Air Force Falcons vs UNLV Rebels Prediction. We will examine:

The UNLV Rebels’ recent form and player performance

The Air Force Falcons’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the UNLV Rebels

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Air Force Falcons

Recent betting trends in games played between the Air Force Falcons and UNLV Rebels

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the  Air Force Falcons vs UNLV Rebels game

UNLV Rebels Preview

The UNLV Rebels finished the regular season with a 17-14 record and were placed 6th in the Mountain West. UNLV is coming off a 67-81 loss to New Mexico. The Rebels are 13-17-1 against the spread and 13-17-1 in over/under.

Offensively, UNLV is averaging 69.6 points per game, which ranks 294th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 68.4 points per game (70th). The Rebels shoot 44.6% from the field (189th) and 34.1% from beyond the arc (185th). The Rebels shoot 71.7% from the free-throw line (201st) and are grabbing 33.6 rebounds per game (276th).

Dedan Thomas leads UNLV in scoring this season, with an average of 15.6 points and a team-high 4.7 assists, while Jaden Henley adds 12.2 points and 4.1 rebounds per game.

Air Force Falcons Preview

The Air Force Falcons finished the regular season with a 4-27 record and were placed 11th in the Mountain West. The Falcons are coming off a 47-87 loss at Utah State. The Falcons are 10-21 against the spread and 17-13-1 in over/under.

Offensively, Air Force is averaging 62 points per game, which is the third-worst in the nation. Defensively, they allow 73.8 points per game (238th). The Falcons shoot 42.3% from the field (313th) and 33.3% from beyond the arc (228th). The Falcons shoot 63.1% from the free-throw line, which is the 4th-worst in the nation, and are grabbing 29.8 rebounds per game (357th).

Ethan Taylor leads Air Force in scoring with an average of 13.6 points, adding team-highs both in rebounding with 5.4 and in assists made with 3.5 per game.

Why the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels will win

• Air Force has lost 24 of its last 25 games against the Mountain West Conference.
• UNLV has won each of its last seven day games against Air Force.
• Air Force has lost the first half in 13 of its last 14 games against the Mountain West Conference.

Why the Air Force Falcons will win

• UNLV has lost four of its last five Conference Tournament games.
• The road team has won three of the last four games between Air Force and UNLV.
• The road team has won the first half in three of the last four games between Air Force and UNLV.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Air Force’s last 19 day games against the Mountain West Conference has produced a total of 131+ points.
• Eight of the last nine day games between Air Force and UNLV have produced a total of 132+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• UNLV ranks T28th among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (5.5).
• Air Force ranks 363rd among Division 1 teams for field goals made per game this season (21.3).
• Air Force ranks 363rd among Division 1 teams for field goal attempts per game this season (50.3).

Air Force Falcons vs UNLV Rebels Prediction

UNLV has won both meetings against Air Force this season. At home with a 68-57 score, and on the road by 77-58, covering the spread in both. UNLV is 6-1 in their last 7 meetings against Air Force.

In this Air Force Falcons vs UNLV Rebels Prediction, UNLV is coming as -12.5-point favorites. UNLV is rightfully favored, as they have been the superior team this season, and had 5 wins outside their home court, while Air Force was winless on the road. UNLV has been in good form lately, as they are 6-2 in their last 8 games and 3-1 against the spread in their last 4. On the other hand, Air Force has been struggling mightily, as they are 1-20 in their last 21 games, and have also trouble covering spreads, as they are 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games. UNLV has won both meetings by 11 and 19 points, and I expect another double-digit victory today, so lay the points with the UNLV Rebels at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: UNLV -12.5