Duke vs SMU Prediction College Basketball Picks 1/4/25

In this article, we will formulate a Duke vs SMU prediction for this College Basketball game on Saturday, January 4th at the Moody Coliseum in Dallas, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Basketball matchup.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

The Duke Blue Devils are 11-2 (3-0) this year after they defeated Virginia Tech by a score of 88-65 in their last game. Duke led 37-27 at halftime and poured in 51 second-half points for the blowout win. The Blue Devils shot 53.4% from the field, 37.9% on three-pointers, and 100% on free throws in the game. Cooper Flagg led Duke with 24 points and six assists, while Tyrese Proctor added 13 points and five assists in the game. 

Prior to that win, the Blue Devils defeated Georgia Tech by a score of 82-56 and George Mason by a score of 68-47. Duke has won seven games in a row and their only two losses so far this year were against Kentucky and Kansas. Duke has scored 79.6 points per game and they have allowed 59.0 points per game, while also averaging 39.6 rebounds and 16.4 assists per game this season. Cooper Flagg is averaging 16.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game, while Kon Knueppel is averaging 12.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game this year. Duke is shooting 46.9% from the field, 75.1% on free throws, and 35.6% on three-pointers this season. 

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

The SMU Mustangs are 11-2 (2-0) this season after they defeated Longwood by a score of 98-82 in their last game. SMU led 45-43 at halftime and scored 53 points in the second half to pull away with the win. The Mustangs shot 62% from the field, 50% on three-pointers, and 83.9% on free throws in the game. Boopie Miller led SMU with 24 points and seven assists, while Yohan Traore added 20 points and 11 rebounds in the win. 

Prior to that game, the Mustangs defeated Boston College by a score of 103-77 and LSU by a score of 74-64. SMU has won seven games in a row and their two losses this year came against Butler and Mississippi State. SMU has scored 87.2 points per game and they have allowed 70.8 points per game, while also averaging 40.8 rebounds and 16.5 assists per game this season. Boopie Miller is averaging 15.4 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game, while Chuck Harris is averaging 12.2 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game this season. SMU is shooting 49.6% from the field, 74.9% on free throws, and 39.1% on three-pointers this year. 

Why SMU will beat Duke

• SMU has won 10 of its last 11 day games at Moody Coliseum (Dallas).

Why Duke will beat SMU

• Duke has won each of its last seven games.
• SMU has lost 10 of its last 11 games against AP-ranked opponents.
• SMU has lost the first half in each of its last four games against Top 10 AP-ranked opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Eleven of SMU’s last 12 day games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 145 or fewer points.
• Eleven of Duke’s last 12 road day games against the Atlantic Coast Conference have produced a total of 143 or fewer points.

Duke vs SMU Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup with 11-2 records to start the season and they are undefeated in conference play, so this is a big game for the top of the ACC standings. Duke is scoring 79.6 points per game this year, but their defense has been the story, as they are allowing just 59.0 points per game this season. The Blue Devils do have wins against Kentucky and Auburn this year, while also beating Virginia Tech and Louisville. SMU is shooting nearly 50% from the field and they are scoring 87.2 points per game, but they have played a slightly easier schedule. The Mustangs do have wins over Virginia and LSU, but this will be a very tough test. I do think SMU can give Duke some trouble, but ultimately I think we are going to see a lower-scoring game, so take the under here.