Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss Prediction 12/23/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss prediction for this College Football game on Tuesday, December 23rd at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this matchup in bowl season.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 8-4 (6-2) this season after they lost to Jacksonville State by a score of 37-34 in their last game. Western Kentucky led 21-7 and 28-17 in the second quarter, but they were tied at 34 late in the fourth, before losing on a last second field goal. The Hilltoppers were out gained by a total of 515-384, went 4-10 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Rodney Tisdale Jr went 17-24 for 180 yards and one interception, while La’Vell Wright rushed 14 times for 116 yards and two scores. Moussa Barry led the receivers with three catches for 68 yards in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Western Kentucky lost to LSU by a score of 13-10, but did beat Middle Tennessee by a score of 42-26 before that. The Hilltoppers have won three of their last five games and they finished third in the CUSA standings. Western Kentucky has scored 29.9 points per game with 272.6 passing yards and 132.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 23.4 points against per game this season. We could see either McIvor or Tisdale Jr under center in this game, while Matthew Henry has 48 receptions for 762 yards and six scores this season. 

Southern Miss Golden Eagles Betting Preview

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are 7-5 (5-3) this year after they lost to Troy by a score of 28-18 in their last game. Southern Miss trailed 14-3 at halftime, but did score 15 points in the second half in the loss. The Golden Eagles were out gained by a total of 428-304, went 5-14 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. Braylon Braxton went 20-35 for 209 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Jeffery Pittman rushed 10 times for 51 yards. Carl Chester led the receivers with four catches for 76 yards and one touchdown in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Southern Miss lost to South Alabama by a score of 42-35 and Texas State by a score of 41-14. The Golden Eagles have lost three games in a row and they finished second in the Sun Belt West standings. Southern Miss has scored 29.8 points per game with 266.8 passing yards and 137.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 27.4 points against per game this season. Braylon Braxton has thrown for 2,796 yards, 23 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while Jeffery Pittman has rushed for 640 yards and eight scores on 146 carries this year. 

Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win

• Southern Miss has lost 15 of its last 16 games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Western Kentucky has won three of its last four games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference at neutral venues.
• The favorite has covered the spread in each of Southern Miss’ last five Bowl games.
• Southern Miss has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Western Kentucky’s last eight December games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of Southern Miss’ last six games as an underdog in Louisiana have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Southern Miss ranks 20th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (9.3).
• Southern Miss ranks T115th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (8.5).
• Western Kentucky ranks T128th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (33.3).
• Western Kentucky ranks T17th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+3.8).

Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup after a rough finish to the season, as Southern Miss has lost three in a row and WKU has lost two in a row. The Hilltoppers have scored at least 34 points in three of their last four games, but their defense has allowed at least 26 in three of their last five. Southern Miss has allowed 28, 42, and 41 in their last three games and their offense has also tailed off in recent games. I think Western Kentucky is the play in this game, especially with the Southern Miss coach leaving, but check back before kick off in case any important opt-outs are announced.

David Racey is 170-142 (55%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. David went 5-1 in College Football on Saturday. Click here for his premium plays for the week!

David Racey's Pick: Western Kentucky ML