Toledo vs Kentucky Prediction 8/30/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Toledo vs Kentucky prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, August 30th at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 1 matchup. 

Toledo Rockets Betting Preview

The Toledo Rockets were 8-5 (4-4) last season and they finished tied for sixth in the MAC standings with Northern Illinois. Toledo started the 2024 season playing well, but they faltered down the stretch, before finishing the year with a bowl win. The Rockets picked up wins against Duquesne, UMass, Mississippi State, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, and Central Michigan, while losing to Western Kentucky, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Ohio, and Akron. Toledo did make the GameAbove Sports Bowl, where they beat Pitt by a score of 48-46. The Rockets scored 28.3 points per game last year, which was 66th in the country, while they allowed 23.2 points against per game, which was 47th. 

This year, Toledo welcomes back Tucker Gleason under center, who has plenty of experience at the QB spot. The Rockets will have two very good weapons at receiver and they will have Trayanum at running back, who played at OSU and Kentucky. The offensive line should be similar to last year, but they need to be better with their run blocking, as the run game never got going in 2024. On defense, Toledo should be led by the secondary and they brought in help for the linebackers, but I am concerned about the defensive line. 

Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview

The Kentucky Wildcats went 4-8 (1-7) last year and they finished second to last in the SEC standings, which was only better than 0-8 Mississippi State. Kentucky was fine in the non-conference, but they were simply not good enough in SEC play. The Wildcats picked up wins against Southern Miss, Ohio, Ole Miss, and Murray State, while they lost to South Carolina, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Texas, and Louisville. Kentucky was competitive in most of their games, but their offense was brutal. The Wildcats scored 20.6 points per game, which was ranked 119th in the country, while they allowed 22.1 points against per game, which was 33rd. 

This season, Kentucky will look to improve on the offensive side of the ball, which shouldn’t be hard to do after last season’s performance. The Wildcats will be using a new quarterback this year and the offensive line was rebuilt, so there are plenty of question marks going into the season. Kentucky does have a decent one-two punch in the backfield, but they lost two very good targets at the receiver position. On defense, Kentucky did bring in help in the front seven from the portal and their secondary should be solid, so I think we will see a typical defense from the Wildcats, which will be a big improvement from the 2024 season. 

Why Kentucky will beat Toledo 

• Kentucky has won 27 of its last 30 games against non-conference opponents.
• Kentucky has covered the spread in six of its last seven games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.
• Toledo has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five road games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Toledo’s last seven road openers as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of Kentucky’s last six completed home openers as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Kentucky ranked 16th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game last season (3.2).
• Kentucky ranked 121st among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage last season (33.3).
• Toledo ranked 13th among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game last season (8.6).
• Toledo ranked 120th among FBS teams for red zone percentage last season (74.0).

Toledo vs Kentucky Prediction

Kentucky will look to start the 2025 season strong after last year’s disappointment, but they will face a very tough Toledo program here. The Rockets had some abnormal issues last season, but they have an experienced quarterback and could make this game interesting. Kentucky has plenty of new pieces and while I do think it will take some time to figure things out, they should move the ball here. We saw the Toledo defense really struggle at the end of last season and I think Kentucky will run the ball all over in this one. I do like this game to be lower scoring, but I think Kentucky pulls away with dominance in the trenches.