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Kansas State vs Baylor Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
Kansas State (2-3) vs Baylor (3-2)
October 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Baylor -6 — Over/Under: +61.5
The Kansas State Wildcats and the Baylor Bears meet Saturday in college football action from McLane Stadium. Here’s a Kansas State vs Baylor prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Kansas State vs Baylor pick. We will examine:
The Kansas State Wildcats recent form and player performance
The Baylor Bears recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas State Wildcats
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Baylor Bears
Recent betting trends in games played between Kansas State and Baylor
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Kansas State vs Baylor game
The Wildcats got off to an early start this year, taking on Iowa State on August 23. That game turned into a tough loss 24-21, but Kansas State would rebound with a 38-35 win over North Dakota in a home matchup on August 30. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they’d drop their next two games 24-21 against Army and 23-17 versus Arizona. In the Arizona defeat, Kansas State had a rough time on offense with just 193 yards (88 passing), 3.6 yards per play and eight first downs along the way.
In last weekend’s matchup versus UCF, the Wildcats were up 17-7 by halftime and managed to power out a 34-20 victory with 17 more points in the second half. QB Avery Johnson logged an 18-of-25 line for 168 yards and a pair of scores while Dylan Edwards led the rush with 166 yards and a TD off 20 carries. Leading the team in receiving was Jaron Tibbs with eight catches for 72 yards.
Over on the Bears’ side, they had a tricky home matchup versus Auburn in their opener this year, eventually falling 38-24. Baylor would bounce back and win over SMU in overtime on September 6, then beat Samford in a 42-7 blowout. Game four versus Arizona State was another loss however, this time 27-24. The Bears’ offense couldn’t overcome three turnovers and went just 5-of-12 on third-down tries. The defense had trouble getting off the field as the Sun Devils generated 400 total yards and 36:24 in time of possession.
Matched up against Oklahoma State last weekend, the Bears outscored the Cowboys 21-13 in the second quarter and 10-0 in the fourth quarter along the way to a 45-27 win. Sawyer Robertson was 24-of-35 for 393 yards and four touchdowns and Josh Cameron topped the receivers with six grabs for 98 yards. Caden Knighten was tops on the ground with five totes for 81 yards.
Heading into Week 6, Sawyer Robertson ranks 1st amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (17) this season.
Kansas State Wildcats Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 6, Avery Johnson ranks T9th in the league for TD:INT ratio (8.00) this season.
Baylor ranks 10th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (15.4).
Baylor ranks 11th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (504.2).
Kansas State ranks T129th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (25:56).
Kansas State ranks T11th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (10.0).
I’ll stick with Kansas State, but this one’s something of a coin flip. The Wildcats did a pretty good job overall versus UCF last weekend, holding the Knights to just 13 first downs and 3-of-13 on third-down conversions alongside a trio of takeaways. The run defense wasn’t quite there however (205 yards allowed), helping buoy UCF’s 6.8 yards per play. On offense Kansas State generated 434 yards of their own, including 266 yards on the ground and 6.2 yards per play. The 34 points were the Wildcats’ second-highest total of the season, behind only 38 in the win over North Dakota. It’d be nice to see some more solid offensive output here.
As for Baylor, they put up a nice offensive outing against Oklahoma State last weekend with 612 total yards (393 passing), 8.3 yards per play and 29 first downs. The eight penalties and 291 passing yards given up by the defense were just about the only things to complain about. Baylor is scoring well these days with 42 or more points in three of their last four outings. This game could get to a big total if both teams are on point.
The Kansas State Wildcats recent form and player performance
The Baylor Bears recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas State Wildcats
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Baylor Bears
Recent betting trends in games played between Kansas State and Baylor
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Kansas State vs Baylor game
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview
The Wildcats got off to an early start this year, taking on Iowa State on August 23. That game turned into a tough loss 24-21, but Kansas State would rebound with a 38-35 win over North Dakota in a home matchup on August 30. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they’d drop their next two games 24-21 against Army and 23-17 versus Arizona. In the Arizona defeat, Kansas State had a rough time on offense with just 193 yards (88 passing), 3.6 yards per play and eight first downs along the way.
In last weekend’s matchup versus UCF, the Wildcats were up 17-7 by halftime and managed to power out a 34-20 victory with 17 more points in the second half. QB Avery Johnson logged an 18-of-25 line for 168 yards and a pair of scores while Dylan Edwards led the rush with 166 yards and a TD off 20 carries. Leading the team in receiving was Jaron Tibbs with eight catches for 72 yards.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
Over on the Bears’ side, they had a tricky home matchup versus Auburn in their opener this year, eventually falling 38-24. Baylor would bounce back and win over SMU in overtime on September 6, then beat Samford in a 42-7 blowout. Game four versus Arizona State was another loss however, this time 27-24. The Bears’ offense couldn’t overcome three turnovers and went just 5-of-12 on third-down tries. The defense had trouble getting off the field as the Sun Devils generated 400 total yards and 36:24 in time of possession.
Matched up against Oklahoma State last weekend, the Bears outscored the Cowboys 21-13 in the second quarter and 10-0 in the fourth quarter along the way to a 45-27 win. Sawyer Robertson was 24-of-35 for 393 yards and four touchdowns and Josh Cameron topped the receivers with six grabs for 98 yards. Caden Knighten was tops on the ground with five totes for 81 yards.
Kansas State Wildcats @ Baylor Bears Betting Trends: Week 6
Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts
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Heading into Week 6, Sawyer Robertson ranks 1st amongst FBS players for passing touchdowns (17) this season.
Kansas State Wildcats Player Prop Facts
Heading into Week 6, Avery Johnson ranks T9th in the league for TD:INT ratio (8.00) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
Baylor ranks 10th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (15.4).
Baylor ranks 11th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (504.2).
Kansas State ranks T129th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (25:56).
Kansas State ranks T11th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (10.0).
Kansas State vs Baylor Prediction
I’ll stick with Kansas State, but this one’s something of a coin flip. The Wildcats did a pretty good job overall versus UCF last weekend, holding the Knights to just 13 first downs and 3-of-13 on third-down conversions alongside a trio of takeaways. The run defense wasn’t quite there however (205 yards allowed), helping buoy UCF’s 6.8 yards per play. On offense Kansas State generated 434 yards of their own, including 266 yards on the ground and 6.2 yards per play. The 34 points were the Wildcats’ second-highest total of the season, behind only 38 in the win over North Dakota. It’d be nice to see some more solid offensive output here.
As for Baylor, they put up a nice offensive outing against Oklahoma State last weekend with 612 total yards (393 passing), 8.3 yards per play and 29 first downs. The eight penalties and 291 passing yards given up by the defense were just about the only things to complain about. Baylor is scoring well these days with 42 or more points in three of their last four outings. This game could get to a big total if both teams are on point.
Andrew Jett's Pick: Kansas State Wildcats +6
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