Boise State vs Notre Dame Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

Boise State and Notre Dame meet Saturday in Week 6 college football action from Notre Dame Stadium. Here’s a Boise State vs Notre Dame prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Boise State Broncos and Notre Dame Fighting Irish pick. We will examine:

The Boise State Broncos’ recent form and player performance

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Fighting Irish 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Broncos

Recent betting trends in games played between Boise State and Notre Dame

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Boise State and Notre Dame game.

Big Time Test for Boise State

Boise State opened up the season with a blowout loss against South Florida, but since that point they have won four straight games. Two games ago, against Air Force, they won 49-37 and in the last game against Appalachian State, they won 47-14. Maddux Madsen had a huge game under center, completing 25 of his 37 passes for 321 yards and four touchdowns. Sire Gaines also had a strong game on the ground finishing with 12 carries for 69 yards. The running game in this game is going to need to be strong because a balanced offensive output is going to be key. 

The Broncos on the season are averaging 38.5 points while their defense is giving up 24.8 points per game. The offense is ranked 22nd in college football, and they need to put pressure with the pitching early in this game. 

Why the Boise State Broncos will win

• Boise State has won each of its last three October games as a road underdog.
• Boise State has covered the spread in each of its last three games.

Notre Dame Can’t Slip Up

Notre Dame has already lost two games, and a shot at the college football playoff might already be gone. If there is any sort of hope left to make the playoffs, though, this is a game they need to make a big time statement in. Two games ago against Arkansas, Boise State picked up the 56-30 victory, and last Saturday against Arkansas,  they were defeated 56-13. At halftime, they were up 42-13 and they never looked back on the way to the victory. CJ Carr had a huge game, completing 22 of his 30 passes for 354 yards nad four touchdowns. Jadarian Price also had a strong game on the ground rushing 13 times for 86 yards and a touchdown.

Notre Dame on the season is averaging 44 points while their defense is giving up 27.8 points per game. The offense is ranked 11th while the defense is ranked 98th. The defense isn’t as strong as years past, but this offense is also a lot better. It would be nice to see this defense step up here, and create a couple of turnovers. 

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will win

• Notre Dame has won 17 of its last 18 October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Boise State has lost six of its last seven road games against non-conference opponents.
• Notre Dame has covered the spread in each of its last seven games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Boise State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against opponents from the FBS Independents.

Boise State vs Notre Dame Prediction

Is Notre Dame going to win this game? Yes, they are. I don’t see them winning this game in blowout fashion though. This Notre Dame’s defense has shown some holes, and they are going to struggle here. Madsen is coming off a game where he threw for four touchdowns, and he’s going to light up the scoreboard here. I don’t think it’s going to be enough to win the game, but it’s going to be enough to keep it close. This is going to be a one score game in the 4th quarter. This will be a high scoring game, that Boise State is going to keep close. Back Boise State against the spread.