Central Florida vs TCU Prediction College Football Picks 9/14/24

The Central Florida Knights and the TCU Horned Frogs meet Saturday in college football action from Amon G. Carter Stadium. Here’s a UCF vs TCU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best UCF vs TCU pick. We will examine:

The Central Florida Knights’ recent form and player performance

The TCU Horned Frogs’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Central Florida Knights

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the TCU Horned Frogs

Recent betting trends in games played between UCF and TCU

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the UCF vs TCU game

Central Florida Knights Betting Preview

UCF had a pretty soft opener versus New Hampshire. The Knights scored 28 points in the third quarter alone during a 57-3 win. KJ Jefferson posted 164 yards with two scores, and RJ Harvey led the rushing attack on 11 carries for 142 yards and two TDs of his own.

In the Sam Houston game last weekend, UCF scored 14 points in both the first and third quarters during a blowout win 45-14. Jefferson had 169 pass yards on a 12-of-15 success rate. Harvey had a great outing again with 126 yards and a whopping four scores off 19 carries.

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview

The Frogs played Stanford in their opening matchup of the 2024 season. TCU outscored the Cardinal 24-10 in the second half for a comeback win 34-27. Josh Hoover had 353 pass yards and a pair of scores. Jack Bech caught one of those TDs with his six catches for 139 yards.

TCU played LIU in their matchup last Saturday. In that one, the Frogs had zero difficulties. TCU was up 31-0 by halftime and cruised to the win 45-0. Hoover had 267 yards and two pass scores this time, and Cam Cook rushed 13 times for 58 yards and three TDs. TCU will face SMU and Kansas following this game.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win

• TCU has won five of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
• UCF has lost four of its last five road games.
• TCU has covered the spread in six of its last seven games against conference opponents at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
• UCF has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games as a road favorite.

Why the UCF Knights will win

• UCF has won six of its last seven road openers.
• TCU has lost four of its last five games against conference opponents.
• TCU has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of TCU’s last five games in September has gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of UCF’s last four games in September has gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• TCU ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage this season (1.000).
• TCU ranks T1st among FBS teams for H2 win percentage this season (1.000).
• UCF ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• UCF ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage this season (1.000).

UCF vs TCU Prediction

I’ll go with UCF. You could certainly make a case either way, though. The Knights’ offense was working great last weekend with 554 total yards. Most of that was due to the running game (384 yards), as Central Florida rolled to 7.5 yards per play, 29 first downs, 34:03 in time of possession, and 8-of-13 on third-down tries.

As for TCU, they were a little more balanced in their offense during last weekend’s blowout. The Frogs posted 425 total yards (298 passing) and 22 first downs there. TCU’s rush defense is going to get its first major test this weekend, which should be the key matchup in this game. I like UCF to end up with the cover/win, but obviously, it’s close.