San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction 5/15/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The San Antonio Spurs and the Minnesota Timberwolves duke it out in Game 6 of the West Semifinals at the Target Center on Friday night. Here’s a San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction. This article will include a San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Pick.

San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview 

The San Antonio Spurs are now just one win away from advancing to the West Finals after blowing past the Timberwolves in a 126-97 home win in Game 5 on Tuesday night. Victor Wembanyama led the team with 27 points, 17 rebounds and five assists. Keldon Johnson added 21 points on eight of 11 shooting off the bench, while De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle scored 18 and 17 points, respectively.

As a team, the Spurs shot 53 percent from the field and 11 of 32 from the 3-point line as they kept the Timberwolves in check from the start and held them to just 17 points in the second quarter to take a 12-point lead into halftime, before the Spurs poured in 71 points in the second half to run away with it in the end. The Spurs were a little sloppy with the ball as they committed 15 turnovers and squandered an early 16-point lead, but they were always in control after jumping out to an 18-point lead in the third quarter. 

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves are now on the brink of elimination after getting smashed by the Spurs in a tough loss in Game 5 on Tuesday. Anthony Edwards led the team in scoring with 20 points, Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels each scored 17 points, and Ayo Dosunmu chipped in with 16 points, nine rebounds and four assists.

As a team, the Timberwolves shot just 39 percent from the field and nine of 33 from the 3-point line as they fought so hard to overcome an early 16-point lead to climb back into the contest in the third quarter, but they just couldn’t respond after the Spurs closed the quarter on a 29-12 run. Naz Reid had just 12 points off the bench, while Rudy Gobert scored four points on one of four shots. 

Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win

• The Timberwolves have won four of their last five games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Spurs have lost eight of their last nine games at Target Center.
• The Timberwolves have covered the spread in eight of their last nine playoff games at Target Center.
• The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five Western Conference Semifinals games against Northwest Division opponents following a win.

Why the San Antonio Spurs will win

• The Spurs have won each of their last seven road games following a home win.
• The Timberwolves have lost each of their last five Friday games against Spurs teams that held a winning record.
• The Spurs have covered the spread in four of their last five playoff games as road favorites.
• The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Spurs’ last eight playoff games as road favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Timberwolves’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.

Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts

• Anthony Edwards ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for points per game (28.8) this season.
• Jaden McDaniels is one of only five qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 three, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block this season.

San Antonio Spurs Player Facts

• Stephon Castle is one of only five players to have recorded a 40+ point triple-double this season.
• Julian Champagnie is one of only 11 players in the league to have made 10+ threes in a game this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Timberwolves have allowed the most games with 40+ points (11) this season.
• The Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league for blocks per game this season (5.8).
• The Spurs rank 1st in the league for Q1 win percentage this season (69.5%).
• The Spurs rank 2nd in the league for point differential per game this season (+8.3).

San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction

The Spurs must be brimming with confidence following their dominant win in Game 5 on Tuesday, while the Timberwolves will be kicking themselves after getting blown out in the second half. The Timberwolves tried their best to get under the skin of the Spurs’ Wembenyama by getting extra physical, but it didn’t work at all and now they are fighting just to stay alive.

The Timberwolves have their backs against the wall and they will surely come out swinging in this must-win game at home, but the Spurs are clearly the better squad and I think they finish the job here with a gritty win and cover on the road to book their tickets to the Western Conference Finals.

Peter Tran's Pick: San Antonio -5.5