Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Prediction 1/17/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat meet Saturday in NBA action at the Kaseya Center. Here’s a Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Prediction. This article will include a Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Rockets and Spurs, and then play the Cavs next. The Thunder have won 39 of their last 46 regular season games.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 121.4 points on 8.9 percent shooting and allowing 108.4 points on 43.7 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.9 points and 6.4 assists, while Chet Holmgren is averaging 18.1 points and 8.3 rebounds. Jalen Williams is the third double-digit scorer and Ajay Mitchell is grabbing 3.4 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 35.5 percent from beyond the arc and 82.6 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 37.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.9 rebounds per game.

Miami Heat Betting Preview

The Miami Heat lost to the Celtics, beat the Suns, and they play the Warriors next. The Heat have lost 4 of their last 5 games.

The Miami Heat are averaging 119.4 points on 46.9 percent shooting and allowing 117.7 points on 46 percent shooting. Norman Powell is averaging 23.8 points and 3.7 rebounds, while Tyler Herro is averaging 21.8 points and 2.7 assists. Bam Adebayo is the third double-digit scorer, and Andrew Wiggins is grabbing 4.8 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 36.9 percent from beyond the arc and 79 percent from the free-throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 34.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.6 rebounds per game.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The home team has won five of the Heat’s last six games.
• The Heat have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games at Kaseya Center against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as favorites against Southeast Division opponents.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won 23 of their last 24 games against Southeast Division opponents.
• The Heat have lost each of their last six games against Thunder teams that held a winning record.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games at Kaseya Center.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games at Kaseya Center against Thunder teams that held a winning record.

Total Points Facts

• Five of the Heat’s last six home games following a home loss have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of the Thunder’s last five games as favorites following a road win have gone OVER the total points line.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Bam Adebayo ranks 3rd amongst qualified Forwards for rebounds per game (9.5) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Cason Wallace has recorded 3+ steals in two consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
• Alex Caruso ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for steals per 36 minutes (2.7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Heat rank 1st in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.7).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for H1 points per game this season (61.4).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent turnovers per game this season (18.1).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent field goal percentage this season (43.4%).

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Injury Report

The Heat will be without Terry Rozier, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Davion Mitchell. Tyler Herro is questionable.

The Thunder will be without Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic, and Isaiah Hartenstein.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Prediction 

The Thunder obviously have the ability to blow the doors off in this spot and the Heat are back to their depressing ways. However, this is a lot of points for OKC. One, the Thunder don’t cover numbers the way they have in past seasons. The Heat and Thunder played each other last week, and it was a competitive 12-point loss. The Heat are at home where 14 of their 21 wins have come, and they should be eager to rebound from a bad loss to the Celtics where they were up big. The Thunder should win, but I’ll take the points with the Heat.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Miami Heat +9.5