Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Prediction 6/11/25 NBA Picks

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview 

The Oklahoma City Thunder must have been disappointed after dropping the first game of the series, but they will be feeling much better after they bounced back with a comfortable 123-107 win in Game 2 on Sunday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team from the front with 34 points, eight assists, and four steals on 11 of 21 shooting. Alex Caruso provided a real spark off the bench with 20 points, Jalen Williams added 19 points with five assists, while Aaron Wiggins chipped in with 18 points.

As a team, the Thunder shot 48 percent from the field and 14 of 36 from the 3-point line, but as always, it was their defense that was key. They always looked in control after restricting the Pacers to just 41 points in the first half. Chet Holmgren started Game 1 off the bench, but he was way more impactful in the starting lineup, as he altered plenty of close shots that the Pacers were making in Game 1. 

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers will have mixed emotions as they were good enough to get the split on the road but will be disappointed to get blown out in Game 2 on Sunday. Tyrese Haliburton led the team in scoring with just 17 points and six assists, Myles Turner added 16 points with four assists, Pascal Siakam scored 15 points with seven rebounds and four assists while Myles Turner chipped in with 16 points.

As a team, the Pacers shot 45 percent from the field and 14 of 40 from the 3-point line as they struggled to penetrate the Thunder’s defense from the start and just couldn’t gain any traction until they trailed by 23 points. Obi Toppin had a night to forget as he shot just one of eight for his three points off the bench, while Pascal Siakam was held to just 15 points on three of 11 shooting. The Pacers have already run down huge deficits on their way to the NBA Finals, but this was a bit of a letdown performance overall coming off such a dramatic win in the series opener. 

Why the Indiana Pacers will win

• The Pacers have won each of their last seven home games following a loss.
• The Thunder have lost each of their last three games as road favorites following a home win.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven road games.
• The Pacers have covered the spread in each of their last six playoff home games following a loss.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won 19 of their last 20 night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Pacers have lost eight of their last nine Wednesday games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Pacers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as underdogs against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.

Indiana Pacers Player Facts

• Ben Sheppard ranks 8th amongst qualified players for assist:turnover ratio (3.9) this season.
• Bennedict Mathurin ranks T9th in the league for fast break points (277) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Isaiah Joe ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (4.3) this season.
• Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Prediction

The Pacers could have Jarace Walker returning from injury, but it does seem as though Tyrese Haliburton might have to play through a bit of a niggle after he was seen hobbling after Game 2. Still, the Pacers can turn to players like Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell, who should play better at home. There is no reason for the Thunder to mess with a winning formula, as Chet Holmgren looked much more dangerous in the starting role. Looking at betting trends, the Pacers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog in the playoffs, while the Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their seven games as a road favorite.

The Pacers would be down 0-2 in the series if not for some Haliburton heroics at the end of Game 1, but the Pacers were good enough to steal home-court advantage, which is crucial in this series. The Pacers will be disappointed that they didn’t give themselves much of a chance after such a poor first half on Sunday, but the Pacers’ got the split on the road. They are returning to a packed home crowd. The momentum is with the Thunder after their big win in Game 2, but the Pacers love being the underdog at home. I think they can pull off the minor upset with the role players stepping up on their home court.

Peter Tran's Pick: Indiana +5.5