Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction 5/4/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves and the San Antonio Spurs collide in Game 1 of the West Semifinals at the Frost Bank Center on Monday night. Here’s a Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction. This article will include a Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Pick.

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview 

The Minnesota Timberwolves came into the NBA Playoffs with plenty of confidence and now they have plenty of momentum after blowing past the Nuggets in a 4-2 series win in the first round. Ayo Dosunmu picked up the slack for the Timberwolves’ injured starting backcourt and led the team with averages of 21.8 points and 4.0 assists per game during the playoffs; Julius Randle is averaging 19.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game, while Anthony Edwards played just four games with averages of 18.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.

As a team, the Timberwolves scored 112.0 points per game against the Nuggets while shooting 46.8 percent from the field and 33.7 percent from the 3-point line. The Timberwolves could have easily packed it up after losing Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo to injuries, but Ayo Dosunmu had that monster 43-point night in Game 4, while Jaden McDaniels caught fire with 32 points in Game 6. 

San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs have enjoyed a near-perfect start to the NBA Playoffs as they cruised past the Trail Blazers in a five-game series in the first round. Victor Wembanyama has sat out a game but still led the team with averages of 21.0 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game; De’Aaron Fox is averaging 20.2 points and 6.8 assists per game, while Stephon Castle has averaged 19.8 points, 4.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game.

As a team, the Spurs are scoring 112.4 points per game while shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from the 3-point line. The bench for the Spurs has yet to get going in these playoffs but they haven’t been tested yet, with the Spurs’ only defeat coming by just three points in Game 2, where Wembenyama went down with that nasty head knock.

Why the San Antonio Spurs will win

• The Spurs have won each of their last eight night games against the Timberwolves following a home win.
• The Timberwolves have lost 12 of their last 13 games at Frost Bank Center against Spurs teams that held a winning record.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the Timberwolves’ last four games.
• The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs when playing with a rest disadvantage.

Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win

• The Timberwolves have won each of their last six night games against Southwest Division opponents.
• The Spurs have lost three of their last four playoff games as home favorites following a win.
• The Timberwolves have covered the spread in seven of their last eight night games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five Western Conference Semifinals games at the Frost Bank Center.

Total Points Facts

• Twelve of the Spurs’ last 13 Monday home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the Timberwolves’ last five road games have gone OVER the total points line.

San Antonio Spurs Player Facts

• Stephon Castle is one of only five players to have recorded a 40+ point triple-double this season.
• Julian Champagnie is one of only 11 players in the league to have made 10+ threes in a game this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts

• Naz Reid ranks 2nd amongst qualified Centers for three-pointers made per game (2.1) this season.
• Julius Randle ranks 3rd amongst qualified Centers for points per game (21.1) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Spurs rank 1st in the league for Q1 win percentage this season (69.5%).
• The Spurs rank 2nd in the league for point differential per game this season (+8.3).
• The Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league for blocks per game this season (5.8).
• The Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league for opponent blocks per game this season (4.1).

Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction

The Timberwolves have ruled out Donte DiVincenzo for the season while Ayo Dosunmu and Anthony Edwards are both listed as questionable for Game 1, while the Spurs have ruled out David Jones Garcia for the season with Carter Bryant listed as a game-time decision. The Timberwolves have already been challenged in these playoffs and they passed the test against the Nuggets, while the Spurs cruised past the Trail Blazers with ease and probably could have rested Wembenyama for the entire first round.

These teams met three times in the regular season, with the Timberwolves winning the series by 2-1, so they would like their chances if they could just get Edwards back on the court. The Spurs are heavy favorites at home in the series opener, but I just feel that the line is a little too high for this one. I think the Spurs get the win at home, but the Timberwolves battle to the end to keep this within single digits.

Peter Tran's Pick: Minnesota +13.5