Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 5/28/25 NBA Picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder collide in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals at the Paycom Center on Wednesday night. Here’s a Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick.

 

 

The Minnesota Timberwolves are now on the brink of elimination after falling painfully short to the Thunder in a heartbreaking 128-126 home defeat in Game 4 on Monday. Nickeil Alexander-Walker led the team with 23 points and six assists off the bench, Jaden McDaniels added 22 points, Donte DiVincenzo scored 21 points while Anthony Edwards chipped in with 16 points.

 

As a team, the Timberwolves shot 51 percent from the field and 18 of 41 from the 3-point line as they weathered an early storm from the Thunder and clawed their way back from an early 11-point deficit. Only to fall behind again in the third quarter where the Thunder went on another 9-2 run to start to pull away. Despite a quiet night from Edwards, the Timberwolves still had a chance to tie the game at the end of regulation but their chance was thwarted by the Thunder’s decision to intentionally foul down the stretch. 

 

 

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder are now in full control of the series after taking a commanding 3-1 series with a gritty win in Game 4 on Monday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 40 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists, Jalen Williams added 34 points with five assists and three steals on 13 of 24 shooting while Chet Holmgren chipped in with 21 points, seven rebounds and three blocks.

 

As a team, the Thunder shot 50 percent from the field and 16 of 37 from the 3-point line as they hit the ground running with 37 points in the first quarter to take the early lead. They rallied late in the fourth quarter to escape with the crucial victory despite leaking 41 points in the fourth quarter. The Thunder weren’t at their usual standards on the defensive end, especially in the fourth quarter, but they forced the Timberwolves into 23 turnovers for the game.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last nine Wednesday games.
• The Timberwolves have lost seven of their last eight playoff road games against Western Conference opponents following a loss.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the Thunder’s last six playoff games.
• The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven playoff road games against Western Conference opponents following a loss.

Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win

• The Timberwolves have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against the Thunder following a loss.
• The Thunder have lost six of their last nine playoff games as favorites against Northwest Division opponents following a win.
• The Timberwolves have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a loss.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games as favorites following a road win.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.
• Luguentz Dort ranks 26th amongst qualified players for 3P% (41.2%) this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts

• Mike Conley ranks 5th amongst qualified players for assist:turnover ratio (4.3) this season.
• Jaden McDaniels rank T8th in the league for total steals + blocks (184) this season.

The Thunder are 6-2 ATS when laying -7 or more this postseason, and 21-10-2 ATS in their last 33 home games as favorites of -7 or more.

 

The Timberwolves had a chance to really flip the series on its head, but they missed a real chance to level up the series on Monday. The series now shifts back to the Paycom Center, where the Thunder have won seven of eight games so far during these playoffs. The line has opened with the Thunder as heavy favorites, and that’s not surprising given that they covered Games 1 and 2 with ease at home. The Timberwolves are playing for their season right now, and they might get off to a better start, but if the Thunder gets hot early, this one could get ugly in a hurry. I think the Timberwolves have already thrown their two best punches, and it’s time for the Thunder to finish the job at home and book their tickets to the NBA Finals.