Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Prediction 1/19/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors meet Monday in NBA action at the Chase Center. Here’s a Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Prediction. This article will include a Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Pick.

Miami Heat Betting Preview

The Miami Heat lost to the Celtics, beat the Thunder, and they play the Kings next. The Heat have lost 4 of their last 6 games.

The Miami Heat are averaging 119.4 points on 46.9 percent shooting and allowing 117.7 points on 46 percent shooting. Norman Powell is averaging 23.8 points and 3.7 rebounds, while Tyler Herro is averaging 21.8 points and 2.7 assists. Bam Adebayo is the third double-digit scorer, and Andrew Wiggins is grabbing 4.8 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 36.9 percent from beyond the arc and 79 percent from the free-throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 34.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.6 rebounds per game.

Golden State Warriors Betting Preview

The Golden State Warriors beat the Hornets and Knicks, and they’ll play the Raptors next. The Warriors have won 11 of their last 15 games.

The Golden State Warriors are averaging 115.5 points on 45.6 percent shooting and allowing 113.7 points on 47.2 percent shooting. Stephen Curry averages 28.8 points and 4.7 assists, while Jimmy Butler averages 19.9 points and 4.9 assists. Jonathan Kuminga is the third double-digit scorer, and Brandin Podziemski is grabbing 4.4 rebounds. The Golden State Warriors are shooting 35.9 percent from beyond the arc and 82 percent from the free-throw line. The Golden State Warriors are allowing 34.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.5 rebounds per game.

Why the Golden State Warriors will win

• The Warriors have won each of their last seven home games against the Heat following a win.
• The Heat have lost each of their last five road games against Western Conference opponents following a win.
• The Warriors have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as home favorites on the first leg of a back-to-back.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games against Western Conference opponents following a win.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Heat have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back.
• The Warriors have lost three of their last four night games on the first leg of a back-to-back.
• The Heat have covered the spread in five of their last six night games against the Warriors.
• The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games on the first leg of a back-to-back.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the last six night games between the Heat and Warriors have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Heat’s last six night games against the Warriors following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.

Golden State Warriors Player Facts

• Draymond Green is one of only seven qualified players in the league to be leading their team in rebounds (5.8) and assists (5.3) per game this season.
• Brandin Podziemski ranks 31st amongst qualified players for 3P% (40.9%) this season.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Norman Powell ranks 5th amongst qualified players for fast break points per game (3.9) this season.
• Bam Adebayo ranks 3rd amongst qualified Forwards for rebounds per game (9.6) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• This season, 41.8% of the Warriors’ scoring has come from beyond the three-point line – highest mark in the league.
• The Warriors rank 2nd in the league for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (21.7).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.7).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for H1 points per game this season (61.3).

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Injury Report

The Warriors will be without Seth Curry, De’Anthony Melton, and Gui Santos.

The Heat will be without Terry Rozier and Tyler Herro.

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Prediction

The Warriors have done a fine job of beating up on bottom feeders lately, but they’re still just 20-22-1 ATS on the season. The Warriors still go through scoring droughts, and they’re just not a team I trust against respectable opponents. We don’t know which Heat team is showing up night to night, but they’re coming off a win over the Thunder, and they’ve won 5 of the last 6 games against the Warriors. The Heat usually plays to their level of competition, so I expect them to get up for this one. I’ll grab the points with the Heat.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Miami Heat +6.5