Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction 4/11/25 NBA Picks

Miami Heat Betting Preview

The Miami Heat have been in a rut as they've lost three of their past four games overall, and they will be eager to bounce back here after falling just short to the Bulls in a 119-111 road defeat on Wednesday. Tyler Herro led the team with 30 points on 13 of 26 shooting, Bam Adebayo added 18 points, while Davion Mitchell chipped in with 17 points, eight assists, and four steals off the bench. As a team, the Heat shot 47 percent from the field and 12 of 33 from the 3-point line as they jumped out to a quick start until the Bulls used a 10-0 run in the second quarter to take the lead. The Heat went on a rally in the fourth quarter, but it was all too late as the Heat struggled to find scoring outside of Herro. 

New Orleans Pelicans Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans have been in a real slump, as they've lost 11 of their last 14 games overall. They will be eager to snap a five-game losing streak after getting trampled by the Bucks in a 136-111 road defeat last night. Lester Quinones led the team in scoring with 21 points off the bench, Keion Brooks Jr added 20 points, Antonio Reeves scored 16 points, while Jeremiah Robinson-Earl chipped in with 15 points and 10 rebounds. As a team, the Pelicans shot just 42 percent from the field and 15 of 47 from the 3-point line as they struggled to contain the Bucks early and allowed 41 points in the second quarter to trail going into halftime. Before they allowed another 74 points in the second half to suffer another blowout loss on the road. 

Why the New Orleans Pelicans will win

• The Heat have lost four of their last five games as favorites against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Pelicans have won six of their last seven games at Smoothie King Center against teams that held a losing record.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games against Western Conference opponents.
• The Pelicans have covered the spread in each of their last four home games on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Heat have won each of their last 13 games as road favorites after losing as favorites.
• The Pelicans have lost each of their last 13 games as underdogs following a road loss.
• The Pelicans have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games when playing with a rest disadvantage against the Heat.
• The Heat have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games against Pelicans teams that held a losing record.

Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction

The Heat are still missing Kevin Love, Nikola Jovic, and Pelle Larsson, while the Pelicans have ruled out Jose Alverado, Zion Williamson, and CJ McCollum. The Heat were playing some of their best basketball of the season before they hit a speed bump, but they still open as clear favorites over this ice-cold Pelicans team, who are missing almost all of their best players. The Heat should be well-rested for this one as they haven't played since Wednesday, while the Pelicans are playing their second game of a back-to-back set. The line is hefty, but I have to stick with the Heat to run past this depleted Pelicans squad that can't wait for the season to end.