Gonzaga vs St. Mary’s Prediction 3/11/25 College Basketball Picks

The Saint Mary’s Gaels and the Gonzaga Bulldogs meet Tuesday in college basketball action from the Orleans Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga prediction.

Matchup History

Saint Mary’s won both meetings between these two teams in the regular season, first winning at home on February 1st, 2025, by a final score of 62-58, before picking up the regular season sweep at Gonzaga by a final score of 74-67 on February 22nd, 2025. The sweep made it three straight wins for Saint Mary’s in this head-to-head matchup going back to last season’s West Coast conference title game.

Saint Mary’s Recap

The Saint Mary’s Gaels punched their ticket to the West Coast conference title game after a 74-59 win over Pepperdine last time out. 

Gaels Looking To Defend WCC Crown

Augustas Marciulionis leads the Gaels in scoring and assists with 14.4 PPG and 6.1 APG while Paulius Murauskas has 12.9 PPG and 8.2 RPG to lead the Gaels on the glass this season. Mitchell Saxen has 10.3 PPG with 8 RPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Saint Mary’s up to this point in the year.  Luke Barrett has 9.8 PPG with 6.6 RPG and Jordan Ross has 8.4 PPG with 3 RPG and 2.7 APG while Mikey Lewis has 8.6 PPG as well on the year. As a team, Saint Mary’s is averaging 74.2 PPG on 45.7% shooting from the field, 33.1% from three, and 69.3% from the foul line this season.

Why the Saint Mary’s Gaels will win

• Saint Mary’s has won 20 of its last 21 games against the West Coast Conference.
• Gonzaga has lost six of its last seven night games against AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.

Gonzaga Recap

The Gonzaga Bulldogs come into this game after knocking off San Francisco by a final score of 85-76 to make the title game once again.

Bulldogs Haven’t Missed WCC Title Game Since 1997

Graham Ike leads the Bulldogs in scoring and rebounding with 17.3 PPG and 7.5 RPG while Khalif Battle has 13.1 PPG with 3.5 RPG. Ryan Nembhard has 10.8 PPG with 3.4 RPG and a team-high 10 APG to lead the Zags in assists as well as 1.6 SPG to lead the way in steals as well. Braden Huff has 10.6 PPG with 3.2 RPG and Nolan Hickman has also chipped in 11.3 PPG and 2.6 RPG as well, rounding out the group of double-digit scorers for Gonzaga so far this season. Ben Gregg has also added 9.6 PPG with 5.2 RPG and Michael Ajayi has 6.9 PPG with 5.6 RPG as well this season. As a team, Gonzaga is averaging 87.5 PPG on 50.2% shooting from the field, 35% from three, and 80.2% from the foul line this season.

Why the Gonzaga Bulldogs will win

• Gonzaga has won 28 of its last 30 games at Orleans Arena.
• Saint Mary’s has lost eight of its last 10 Conference Tournament games against Gonzaga at Orleans Arena.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Gonzaga’s last eight games against Conference opponents has produced a total of 139+ points.
• Each of the last five night games between Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s have produced a total of 129 or fewer points.

Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga Prediction

I’m on Saint Mary’s and the points in this game. I get the case to be made for Gonzaga laying points here, as Gonzaga played the tougher test by a fair margin in their conference tournament game by playing San Francisco while Saint Mary’s played Pepperdine. However, Saint Mary’s won both meetings in the regular season and this has been the perennial matchup in the WCC for the last few years far more often than not. I think that although Gonzaga wants revenge, I’m looking at Saint Mary’s to cover here at the very least and potentially complete the trifecta. Give me Saint Mary’s and the points.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: St. Mary's +3.5