St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 4/5/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, April 5th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals are 4-3 this year after they lost game one in this series by a score of 13-9 on Friday. St. Louis allowed five runs in the first inning but did cut the lead to 6-5 and 8-6 before allowing Boston to pull away in the loss. The Cardinals recorded 13 hits in the game, and they were led by Donovan and Herrera, who both had three RBIs in the loss. St. Louis started Fedde, who allowed five hits and six earned runs over 3.0 innings, while Matz, Fernandez, and King combined to allow seven earned runs out of the bullpen. 

Prior to this series, the Cardinals had lost two out of three games against the Angels and swept the Twins in three games. The St. Louis pitching staff has a 4.85 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and a .220 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 51 runs with a .302 batting average and a .377 on-base percentage this season. Ivan Herrera has led St. Louis with four home runs and 11 RBIs, while Lars Nootbaar has added two home runs and six RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Andre Pallante, who is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 4-4 this season after they exploded for 13 runs in the game one win on Friday. Boston scored five runs in the first inning and added five more in the seventh/eighth to pull away in the win. The Red Sox recorded 16 hits and committed three errors in the game, while they were led by Story, who went 2-5 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Boston started Buehler, who allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Chapman came in to get the final two outs for the save. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Orioles and lost three out of four against the Rangers. The Boston pitching staff has a 4.24 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .268 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 40 runs with a .256 batting average and a .335 on-base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with three home runs and eight RBIs, while Kristian Campbell has added two home runs and five RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Richard Fitts, who is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 6.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Cardinals 

• The Cardinals have lost each of their last four games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last four day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in five of their last six games.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games against American League opponents.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four day games at Fenway Park.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four road games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as favorites against the Cardinals have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Cardinals’ last eight games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last five day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the last seven games between the Cardinals and Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances at Fenway Park.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in each of his last eight appearances at Fenway Park.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Red Sox’s last five games as favorites against the Cardinals.
• Rafael Devers has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games against the Cardinals.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Cardinals’ last nine day games.
• Masyn Winn has scored at least one run in each of his last six road appearances.
• Nolan Gorman has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances against the Red Sox.
• Nolan Arenado has hit a home run in three of the Cardinals’ last four games against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
• Willson Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with his team as an underdog against AL East opponents.
• Nolan Arenado has recorded a Double in each of the Cardinals’ last three games as underdogs against AL opponents.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 

Boston was able to offset a rough pitching day with a 13-run outburst to get the win on Friday, and they have scored 21 runs in their last two games. The Red Sox have won three games in a row, and they will be starting Fitts, who pitched decently well against Texas in his first start. St. Louis has lost three of their last four games, and they have allowed 9+ runs in two of their last three. The Cardinals need a solid pitching day from Pallante here, but I expect him to have an inconsistent season. Boston is heating up, and I think Fitts is the slightly better pitcher, so I like the Red Sox to win. 

David Racey's Pick: Red Sox ML