Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction 3/28/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Friday, March 28th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 0-1 this season after they lost to Miami in game one of this series by a score of 5-4. Pittsburgh led 4-1 in the sixth inning, but the bullpen couldn’t hold the lead, and they lost in the ninth. The Pirates scored twice in the fifth inning on a two-run single from Reynolds and twice in the sixth on a home run from Gonzalez. Pittsburgh only had four hits in the game, and they committed one error. Reynolds went 1-4 with two RBIs, while Gonzales went 1-3 with two RBIs as well. Paul Skenes had a great outing on the mound, as he allowed three hits and two earned runs over 5.1 innings of work. Holderman allowed two earned runs out of the bullpen, while Bednar allowed two hits and one earned run for the loss. The Pirates will take on the Rays after this series.

Last year, the Pittsburgh pitching staff had a 4.15 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .250 opponent batting average. On the other side, the Pittsburgh offense scored 665 runs with a .234 batting average and a .301 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds led the Pirates with a .275 batting average, 24 home runs, and 88 RBIs last year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who went 11-12 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 178.0 innings pitched last year.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 1-0 this year after they had a walk-off win in game one on Thursday. Miami took a 1-0 lead in the third inning on a fielder’s choice, but they allowed the next four runs. The Marlins were able to score one run in the sixth on a passed ball, two in the eighth, and one in the ninth on a single from Stowers. Edwards, Stowers, Lopez, and Myers had one RBI each in the game, and no one had more than one hit. Sandy Alcantara allowed two hits and two earned runs in 4.2 innings, while Bachar allowed two earned runs in 1.1 innings of work. 

Last season, the Miami pitching staff had a 4.73 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a .257 opponent batting average in 2024. The Miami offense scored 637 runs with a .244 batting average and a .300 on-base percentage last year. Jake Burger led Miami last season with 29 home runs, 76 RBIs, and a .250 batting average, but he is a Texas Ranger now, while Jesus Sanchez hit .252 with 18 home runs and 64 RBIs on the season. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Connor Gillispie, who went 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 8.0 innings for Cleveland last year. 

Why the Marlins will beat the Pirates 

• The underdogs have won each of the Marlins’ last five games.
• The Pirates have lost six of their last seven games at LoanDepot Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as road favorites against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Marlins’ last eight home games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates’ last three road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Pirates’ last 11 games as road favorites against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the last seven games between the Pirates and Marlins at LoanDepot Park.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Otto Lopez has recorded an RBI in four of the Marlins’ last five night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez has scored a run in four of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one Single in each of his seven previous appearances against the Pirates after playing the previous day.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine games.
• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in four of his last eight appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Andrew McCutchen has hit a home run in four of his last 11 appearances with the Pirates as road favorites.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one Double in three of the Pirates’ last four night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• Mitch Keller has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances at LoanDepot Park.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Pirates as favorites against the Marlins.
• Jack Suwinski has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances with the Pirates as road favorites against NL opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction 

Pittsburgh will look to bounce back from that heartbreaking loss on Thursday with a better outing here, while Miami will try to ride the momentum of that walk-off win. I still don’t trust the Miami offense and need to see them score runs consistently, but they should find some success against Keller, who wasn’t great last year. On the other side, Gillispie is a bit of an unknown but did pitch well in the Spring. I think this game could go either way, so I will take the plus money with the home team. 

David Racey's Pick: Marlins ML