Phillies vs Mets Prediction 4/21/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Monday, April 21st at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 13-9 this year after they won two out of three against the Marlins by scores of 7-2, 11-10, and 5-7. In the game three loss, the Phillies were able to tie the game at five in the eighth inning, but they allowed two runs in the 10th for the loss. Philadelphia recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Harper, who went 2-5 with two RBIs in the loss. The Phillies started Luzardo, who allowed eight hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings, while Kerkering allowed three hits and three earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Phillies split four games with the Giants and lost two out of three against the Cardinals. Philadelphia has won four of its last six games, and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 4.29 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .257 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 103 runs with a .253 batting average and a .342 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with seven home runs and 16 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added five home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 0-4 with a 6.65 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP over 21.2 innings pitched this season. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 15-7 this season after they swept the Cardinals in three games by scores of 4-1, 5-4, 3-0, and 7-4. In their game four win, the Mets blew a 3-0 lead in the middle innings, but they scored four runs in the seventh and eighth to get the win. The Mets recorded 11 hits in the game, and they were led by Soto, who went 2-3 with three RBIs and one walk in the win. New York started Holmes, who allowed four hits and one earned run, while Young allowed one hit and two earned runs in just 0.2 relief innings. 

Prior to that series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Twins, but did win two out of three against the Athletics before that. New York has won six of their last eight games, and they are currently first in the NL East. The New York pitching staff has a 2.35 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a .213 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 91 runs with a .230 batting average and a .305 on-base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with six home runs and 24 RBIs, while Brandon Nimmo has added four home runs and 10 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Tylor Megill, who is 2-2 with a 1.40 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 19.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mets will beat the Phillies 

• The home team has won each of the Mets’ last six games.
• The Phillies have lost nine of their last 10 games at Citi Field against teams that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games at Citi Field against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in 13 of their last 17 night games at Citi Field against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last seven games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Mets’ last nine night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Mets’ last 13 Monday games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Phillies’ last six games as underdogs.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one Double in three of the Mets’ last four games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in two of the Mets’ last three games as favorites.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Mets’ last five games as favorites.
• Tyrone Taylor has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances against the Phillies after playing the previous day.
• Tylor Megill has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against the Phillies.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Mets as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Jose Siri has scored a run in seven of his last eight appearances in night games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Phillies’ last six games.
• Bryce Harper has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies’ last six games against NL opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded a Single in each of the Phillies’ last seven night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 12 night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Phillies vs Mets Prediction 

These two teams come into this series battling at the top of the NL East standings, so this series should be very entertaining to watch. The Mets are 9-1 at home this year, while the Phillies are 4-5 on the road. New York does have the best team ERA in the MLB so far this year, and they are starting Megill, who has allowed a good amount of baserunners but has done a great job of limiting damage. Philadelphia is going with Nola, who has allowed at least five earned runs in two of his four starts. Take the Mets here. 

David Racey's Pick: Mets ML