Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction MLB Picks 9/17/24

In this article we will formulate a Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 17th at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. To formulate this prediction for game one in the series, we will examine:

• The Red Sox’ recent form and recent player performance 
• The Rays’ recent form and recent play performance
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Boston
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Tampa Bay
• Recent betting trends in games played between Boston and Tampa Bay
• A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Boston and Tampa Bay

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 75-75 this year and they have lost three of their last five games. Boston is coming off of a series loss against the Yankees, where they lost three out of four games. Prior to that series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Orioles, won two out of three against the White Sox, and lost all three against the Mets. Boston is 5-10 in their last 15 games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 4.12 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .246 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 710 runs with a .255 batting average and a .321 on-base percentage. Rafael Devers is batting .278 with 28 home runs and 83 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 73-77 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series split with Cleveland, where they won two games and lost two games. Prior to that series, the Rays lost all three against the Phillies, won two out of three against the Orioles, and split four games with the Twins. Tampa Bay is 4-7 in their last 11 games and they are fourth in the AL East. 

The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.88 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 570 runs with a .230 batting average and a .304 on-base percentage. Yandy Diaz is batting .283 with 14 home runs and 65 RBI’s for the Rays this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Nick Pivetta, who is 5-10 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 129.1 innings pitched this year. Pivetta has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Shane Baz, who is 2-3 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 60.1 innings pitched this season. Baz has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight outings. 

Why the Rays will beat the Red Sox

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last 10 road games against the Rays following a loss.
• The Rays have won nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last nine Tuesday games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Rays following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Rays’ last eight games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Red Sox’s last six games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last three games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last three games.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in five of the Rays’ last 10 home games against the Red Sox.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four home appearances against AL opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded two hits in each of the Rays’ last two home games.
• Yandy Diaz has scored a run in six of his last seven home appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Jose Siri has recorded two or more total bases in three of his last four appearances against the Red Sox after not playing the previous day.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Jarren Duran has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games as road favorites against AL opponents.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances with the Red Sox as favorites against AL opponents.
• Wilyer Abreu has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded eight or more strikeouts in four of his five previous appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a losing record.
• Jarren Duran has scored at least one run in each of the Red Sox’s last six games as road favorites.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Connor Wong has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 

Boston is starting to fade in the AL Wild Card race, as they trail Minnesota by four games for the last spot, but also have Detroit and Seattle in front of them. The Red Sox are 40-35 on the road this season, while Tampa Bay is 37-38 at home. The Rays continue to get very good pitching from the starters/bullpen, but they are the third-lowest-scoring team in the MLB this year. Tampa Bay may not score many runs, but the pitching has been great and Baz has been very good in his last four starts. Take the Rays to win this matchup. 

David Racey's Pick: Rays ML