Miami Marlins (8-7) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (9-7)
Game Info: Tuesday, April 15, 2025 at 6:40 pm (loanDepot park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Miami Marlins +140 / Arizona Diamondbacks -166 — Over/Under: 8.5
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Miami Marlins meet on Tuesday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Diamondbacks vs Marlins prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Diamondbacks vs Marlins pick. We will examine:
The Arizona Diamondbacks’ recent form and player performance
The Miami Marlins’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Arizona Diamondbacks
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins
Recent betting trends in games played between the Diamondbacks and Marlins
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Diamondbacks vs Marlins game
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
The Diamondbacks split a four-game series versus the Chicago Cubs in their opening set this year, then took two of three versus the New York Yankees. Arizona would then lose two of three games against the Washington Nationals before winning a three-game series against the Orioles. After a 7-0 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, the Diamondbacks came back for a 5-4 win in game two. Arizona scored all five in the bottom of the ninth during that miraculous victory.
On Sunday, in the rubber match, Arizona scored all of their runs in the final four at-bats on the way to a comeback win 5-2. Alek Thomas had two RBI, and Tim Tawa had two runs with an RBI of his own. Starter Zac Gallen pitched 6.0 innings with two earned runs on five hits and three walks.
As a starting pitcher for Tuesday, the Diamondbacks are going with Merrill Kelly. In his three starts so far this year, Kelly is 2-1 with a 7.20 ERA in 15.0 innings total. Over his career, Kelly is 55-45 with a 3.88 ERA in 143 starts.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
Over on the Marlins’ side, they took wins in three of four versus the Pittsburgh Pirates in their opening series. Miami followed that up with a series loss versus the New York Mets, then a two-game split versus the Braves. The Marlins lost two of three during their rematch with the Mets last week, then split the first pair in the weekend series against the Washington Nationals 7-4 (loss) and 7-6 (win).
On Sunday, Miami posted 14 team hits while giving up 10 on the other side. The Marlins scored seven runs in the final two frames to finish off an 11-4 victory. Matt Mervis posted three RBI with a homer, and Griffin Conine had two RBI, two hits, and a run. Kyle Stowers had three runs, three hits, and two RBI. In the starting pitcher slot on Tuesday, Miami will send out Connor Gillispie. In his three starts so far this year, Gillispie is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 14.0 total innings. Gillispie is 0-1 with a 3.27 ERA in six career games (three starts) and 22.0 frames in all.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last six night games against National League opponents following a home win.
- The Marlins have won five of their last six Tuesday night games as home underdogs against NL West opponents.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games following a home win.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last four night games against the Diamondbacks following a home win.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five home games against National League opponents.
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last nine night games at LoanDepot Park following a win.
- The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight night games against NL East opponents.
- The road team has covered the run line in 10 of the last 11 games between the Diamondbacks and Marlins.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games at LoanDepot Park following a win.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six home games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Marlins’ last four games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Diamondbacks’ last nine road games.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four games against National League opponents.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction
I’ll stick with Arizona. Kelly has one bad start and two good ones so far this year. In the bad start, he put up nine earned on nine hits and three walks in just 3.2 innings during a loss to the Yankees. In the other two outings combined, Kelly is 2-0 with just three earned on six hits and six walks in 11.1 total frames against the Cubs and Orioles. He’s coming off 6.0 innings and two earned versus the O’s, and I like Kelly to keep it going on Tuesday.
The Diamondbacks took a while to get going in their Sunday win over the Brewers, but eventually notched seven team hits as they beat up on the Milwaukee bullpen. That makes five or more runs in three of the last four games for Arizona, with wins in each of those three. In all, the Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last five games, and I like them to keep it going on Tuesday.