WKU (2-1) vs Toledo (3-0)
Game Info: Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 7:00 pm (Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium)
The Line: Betting Odds: WKU +2.5 / Toledo -2.5 — Over/Under: 59
The Toledo Rockets and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers meet in week 4 college football action from L.T. Smith Stadium on Saturday night. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toledo vs. Western Kentucky prediction.
Toledo Recap
The Toledo Rockets come into this one looking to remain unbeaten after improving to 3-0 on the year with a huge 41-17 road win over Mississippi State last time out. After this game, Toledo will head home for a date with Miami-Ohio after their bye week.
Rockets Rolling Offensively
Tucker Gleason has thrown for 662 yards and 9 touchdowns on 61.3% passing while Willie Shaw III has 137 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Junior Vandeross III has a team-high 14 receptions for 225 yards and 3 touchdowns while Jerjuan Newton has 11 grabs for 200 yards and a team-high 4 receiving scores as well. On defense, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren has a team-high 31 total tackles including 14 solo tackles while Braden Awls has a team-high 2 interceptions. As a unit, Toledo has combined for 11 sacks and 3 interceptions this season.
Why the Toledo Rockets will win
- Toledo has won each of its last six games in September.
- Western Kentucky has lost each of its last six September games as an underdog.
- The favorite has covered the spread in four of Western Kentucky’s last five games.
- Western Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games at L.T. Smith Stadium.
Western Kentucky Recap
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers come into this game looking to build on back-to-back wins after a 49-21 win over Middle Tennessee last time out to improve to 2-1 on the year. After this game, Western Kentucky will head on the road to take on Boston College.
Hilltoppers Starting To Heat Up Offensively
TJ Finley has thrown for 490 yards, a touchdown, and 2 interceptions on 64% passing while Caden Veltkamp has thrown for 409 yards and 5 touchdowns on 79.5% passing. Elijah Young leads WKU on the ground with 97 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns while Kisean Johnson has 16 receptions for 263 yards and 2 TDs. Easton Messer and the aforementioned Young each have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Devonte’ Mathews has a team-high 16 total tackles while WKU’s defense as a whole has combined for 5 sacks this season.
Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win
- Western Kentucky has won each of its last seven games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.
- Toledo has lost three of its last four road games in September.
- Western Kentucky has covered the spread in 11 of its last 12 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Toledo has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
Toledo vs. Western Kentucky Prediction
I’m on Western Kentucky here. I think a lot of folks will see what Toledo did to Mississippi State and that TJ Finley is out for Western Kentucky here and think that makes Toledo the shoo-in, but kind of like Florida State this year, I’m not sure Mississippi State is as good of a win as the name sounds on the surface. Sure, it’s a MAC team beating an SEC team on the road, but I’m still left slightly unimpressed. WKU I think has an upgrade at QB with Veltkamp starting over Finley and I think WKU can get the job done at home here. Give me Western Kentucky.