New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos Prediction 1/25/2026 Today’s NFL Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws in the third quarter against the Houston Texans in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
New England Patriots
Denver Broncos
Team Records
14-3
14-3
Spread
-3.5 -115
+3.5 -105
Moneyline
-205
+170
Total
Over 43.5 (-102)
Under 43.5 (-118)
Where
Denver Stadium
When
Sunday, January 25, 2026
Time
03:00 PM EST
TV
CBS
The New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos meet in an AFC Conference Championship playoff matchup in NFL action from Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos prediction.
New England Patriots Recap
The New England Patriots come into the AFC title game off of their 28-16 win over Houston in their last matchup.
Patriots Looking For First Super Bowl Appearance Post-Tom Brady
Drake Maye has thrown for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 72% passing while TreVeyon Henderson has a team-high 911 rushing yards and 9 TDs. Rhamondre Stevenson has 603 rushing yards and 7 TDs and Drake Maye has 450 rushing yards with 4 TDs while Stefon Diggs has a team-high 85 catches for 1,013 yards and 4 TDs to lead New England’s receiving group. Kayshon Boutte has 551 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns while Hunter Henry has 768 receiving yards and 7 TDs. Mack Hollins has 46 catches for 550 yards and DeMario Douglas has 447 receiving yards while another four receivers have 200+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Robert Spillane has a team-high 97 total tackles including 48 solo tackles while Harold Landry III has a team-high 8.5 sacks. K’Lavon Chaisson has 7.5 sacks and Milton Williams has 3.5 sacks. As a unit, New England’s defense has combined for 35 sacks and 10 interceptions so far this season.
Denver Broncos Recap
The Denver Broncos come into this game looking to add on to their 33-30 win over Buffalo in their last game to book their spot in the AFC championship.
Broncos Looking For First Super Bowl Appearance Since Super Bowl 50
Bo Nix has thrown for 3,931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on 63.4% passing but will miss the rest of the season with an injury while J.K. Dobbins has rushed for a team-high 772 yards and 4 touchdowns and RJ Harvey has 540 rushing yards so far this season. Courtland Sutton leads Denver’s receiving group with 74 receptions for 1,017 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns while Troy Franklin also has 65 receptions for 709 yards and 6 touchdowns. Four more Broncos have 300+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Alex Singleton has a team-high 135 total tackles while Nik Bonitto has a team-high 14 sacks and Jonathon Cooper has 8 sacks. As a unit, Denver’s defense has combined for 68 sacks and 10 interceptions so far this season.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Betting Trends: Conference Championships
Why the Denver Broncos will win
The Broncos have won 14 of their last 15 games.
The Patriots have lost 11 of their 12 previous games at Empower Field at Mile High against opponents on a winning streak.
The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last six home games without Alex Singleton.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as road favorites following a home win.
The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the Broncos’ last five postseason games.
The home team has won the first half in each of the last four postseason games between the Patriots and Broncos.
The Broncos have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven games against AFC East opponents.
Why the New England Patriots will win
The Patriots have won each of their last eight road games.
The Broncos have lost each of their last six January games as underdogs.
The Patriots have covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games.
The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games without Nik Bonitto.
The Patriots have won the first quarter in five of their last seven Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last 14 games following a win.
The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games following a win.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Patriots’ last five road games in January have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Broncos’ last four games as underdogs following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
Three of the last four AFC Championship games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts
Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in five of the Broncos’ last six games as underdogs against teams on a winning streak.
Jaleel McLaughlin has recorded 37+ rushing yards in three of the Broncos’ last four games.
Courtland Sutton has recorded 50+ receiving yards in 12 of the Broncos’ last 13 games as underdogs.
Jarrett Stidham has recorded 219+ passing yards in each of his four previous appearances as a starter.
Jarrett Stidham has recorded 20+ completions in each of his four previous appearances as a starter.
Heading into the Conference Championships, Alex Singleton has recorded the equal-most tackles in a single playoff game this season (14 vs Bills, Divisional Round).
New England Patriots Player Prop Facts
Austin Hooper has recorded 11+ receiving yards in nine of his 10 previous road appearances against AFC West opponents.
Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 77+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last seven games.
Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 53+ rushing yards in each of his last four January appearances.
Drake Maye has recorded 230+ passing yards in eight of the Patriots’ last nine road games.
Joshua Dobbs has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances against teams that held a winning record.
Drake Maye ranked 1st amongst qualified players for passer rating (113.5) during the reg. season.
Matchup/League Facts
Broncos – 15 different players have recorded 1.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Conference Championships.
The Broncos ranked 1st in the NFL in sacks (68.0) during the reg. season.
Patriots – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Conference Championships.
Patriots – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Conference Championships.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Prediction
I’m on the Patriots here. I know it feels like the world is on New England with Bo Nix’s injury for Denver, but it’s just hard to envision a world where the Denver Broncos find a way to get over a really solid New England team with Jarrett Stidham at QB. The Patriots have too much firepower to ignore here, so I’m rolling with the Pats on the road for the win and cover here.
