Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction 10/4/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals meet Sunday in NFL action from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Here’s a Jaguars vs Bengals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Jaguars vs Bengals pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

This year the Jaguars opened up at home versus the Cleveland Browns. Jacksonville scored double-digit points in each of the first three quarters on the way to a 34-10 victory. In game two versus the Denver Broncos, the Jaguars went into the fourth quarter with a 13-6 lead. Jacksonville gave up a couple of unanswered touchdowns and lost 20-13, though.

Last weekend versus the New England Patriots, the Jags were ahead 14-3 by the end of the first half. Jacksonville added three more touchdowns after the break and stomped New England 35-6 at home. QB Trevor Lawrence was 19-of-29 for 182 yards, three scores and an interception. Bhayshul Tuten added 15 carries for 73 yards and a score in the victory.

Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview

Over on the Bengals’ side, they kicked things off with a matchup versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year. Cincinnati scored points (and gave up points) in every quarter during a hard-fought win 33-27. As for game two, that was on the road versus the Houston Texans. Cincinnati posted a 13-3 second-half advantage during a 20-6 victory in the end.

Matched up against the Steelers in a rivalry game last weekend the Bengals were down by a touchdown after one quarter then tied at 17-17 after two. Cincinnati scored in every quarter (and gave up points in every quarter) during a tough loss 30-27. QB Joe Burrow put up a 28-of-37 line in the defeat, with 282 yards and three touchdowns on his card.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Cincinnati Bengals will win

• The Bengals have won each of their last six Week 4 home games.
• The Jaguars have lost each of their last four games without Josh Hines-Allen.
• The Bengals have covered the spread in each of their last four games following a Division game.
• The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as underdogs without Brenton Strange.
• The Jaguars have lost the first quarter in four of their last five October games against AFC opponents.
• The Bengals have won the first half in each of their last four October home games against AFC opponents.

Why the Jacksonville Jaguars will win

• The Jaguars have won each of their last three games as underdogs without Travis Hunter.
• The Bengals have lost eight of their last nine games without Joe Burrow.
• The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last five games without Travon Walker.
• The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five October games at Paycor Stadium.
• The Bengals have lost the first half in six of their last seven games as home favorites against AFC South opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Twelve of the Bengals’ last 13 games as home favorites following a road loss have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the Jaguars’ last six Sunday games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Facts

• Tee Higgins has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bengals’ last six games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
• Ja’Marr Chase has recorded 86+ receiving yards in each of the Bengals’ last six games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
• Samaje Perine has recorded 31+ rushing yards in each of his last four home appearances against AFC opponents.
• Joe Flacco has recorded 237+ passing yards in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC South opponents.
• Samaje Perine has recorded 24+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six October appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Joe Burrow has recorded 24+ completions in each of his 10 previous home appearances in games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Heading into Week 4, Evan McPherson has recorded the equal-most made field goals in a single game this season (4 vs Buccaneers, Week 1).

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

• Chris Rodriguez has scored a touchdown in each of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog against teams that held a winning record.
• Jakobi Meyers has recorded 40+ receiving yards in nine of his last 10 appearances against AFC North opponents.
• Jakobi Meyers has recorded 49+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his six previous appearances with his team as an underdog against AFC North opponents.
• Chris Rodriguez has recorded 23+ rushing yards in seven of his last eight appearances.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 22+ completions in four of the Jaguars’ last five games as underdogs with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Heading into Week 4, Trevor Lawrence has the highest passer rating in a single game (min. 10 ATT) this season (150.6 vs Browns, Week 1).

Matchup/League Facts

• Bengals – two different players have recorded 2.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Heading into Week 4, the Bengals rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (100.0%) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Jaguars rank T1st in the NFL in interceptions (4) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Jaguars rank 32nd in the NFL in average punt return (2.3 yards) this season.

Jaguars vs Bengals Prediction

I’ll stay with Jacksonville. The Jags looked pretty darn good against the Patriots last week, despite a tepid 178 passing yards. Jacksonville would add 23 first downs and 8-of-12 on third downs though. The defense gave up just 17 first downs and 4-of-12 on third downs along with three takeaways. It was a nice bounce-back game on both sides after the Broncos defeat.

As for Cincinnati, they’re coming off a very physical rivalry game against the Steelers—one that ended in a tight defeat. The Bengals posted 19 first downs, 6-of-12 on third downs and two lost fumbles in that one. The defense gave up 411 yards and 7-of-12 on third downs on the other side. Cincinnati really needs to tighten up in several areas for this one.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5