New York (77-62) vs Houston (77-63)
September 4, 2025 at 07:40 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Houston +120 — Over/Under: +8.5
In this article we will formulate a Yankees vs Astros prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 4th at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The New York Yankees are 77-62 this year after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 7-1 and 7-8. In their game two loss, New York led 4-1 in the sixth inning, but they absolutely fell apart and allowed five runs in the 7th/8th innings for the loss. The Yankees recorded 11 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Bellinger, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the loss. New York started Warren, who allowed five hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Williams allowed four earned runs for the loss.
Prior to this series, the Yankees won three out of four against the White Sox and all three against the Nationals. New York has won eight of their last ten games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 733 runs with a .251 batting average and a .331 on base percentage this season. Aaron Judge has led New York with 43 home runs and 97 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger has added 27 home runs and 86 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Carlos Rodon, who is 15-7 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 164.1 innings pitched this year.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Houston Astros are 77-63 this season after they won game two by a score of 8-7 on Wednesday night. Houston trailed 4-1 in the sixth, but they scored the next seven runs and barely escaped with the victory. The Astros recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Pena, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. Houston started Alexander, who allowed six hits and three earned runs over 5.0 innings, while King picked up the win in relief.
Prior to this series, the Astros split four games with the Angels and won two out of three against the Rockies. Houston has lost three of their last five games and they are currently first in the AL West standings. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .233 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 589 runs with a .253 batting average and a .319 on base percentage this season. Jose Altuve has led Houston with 24 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Christian Walker has added 21 home runs and 74 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Cristian Javier, who is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 16.0 innings pitched this season.
Why the Astros will beat the Yankees
The underdogs have won eight of the last nine games between the Yankees and Astros at Daikin Park.
The Yankees have lost seven of their last nine games as favorites against American League opponents following a road loss.
The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last eight Thursday games as underdogs against American League opponents.
The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as road favorites against American League opponents following a road loss.
Why the Yankees will beat the Astros
The Astros have lost each of their last six home games against AL East opponents following a home win.
The Yankees have won six of their last seven night games after playing the previous day.
The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games against AL East opponents following a home win.
The Yankees have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games at Daikin Park.
The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
Six of the Astros’ last eight games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Three of the Yankees’ last four night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last six games.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last four road games against AL West opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
The Astros rank 5th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.233).
The Astros rank 5th in the league for hits allowed this season (1087).
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (706).
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.458).
Yankees vs Astros Prediction
Houston was able to complete a great comeback win to even the series at one on Wednesday night, and they picked up another game on Seattle in the West. The Astros are 43-31 at home this year, while the Yankees are 36-34 on the road. New York blew the game on Wednesday, but they are still playing very well over the last few weeks and they are starting Rodon, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. Houston is going with Javier, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his four starts, but only two of them lasted at least five innings. This is a pretty good pitching matchup and I think we are going to see a low scoring game, so I like the under here.