| MATCHUP | Washington Nationals | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 44-43 | 37-47 |
| Spread | +1.5 -163 | -1.5 135 |
| Moneyline | +123 | -148 |
| Total | Over 9.5 (-112) | Under 9.5 (-107) |
| Where | Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts | |
| When | Wednesday, July 1, 2026 | |
| Time | 01:35 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Boston Red Sox Preview
The Boston Red Sox have a 37‑47 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the AL East. They have a 17‑26 home record and are coming off a 1‑8 home defeat against the Nationals. They will face the Angels and the White Sox next.
The Red Sox have a .243 batting average this season, .310 OBP and .384 Slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Willson Contreras is the team’s best hitter with a .280 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 53 and adding a team‑high 18 home runs.
Payton Tolle (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 4‑5 record, 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
Washington Nationals Preview
The Washington Nationals have a 44‑43 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL East. They have a 27‑18 road record and are coming off an 8‑1 road win against the Red Sox. They will face the Pirates and the Angels next.
The Nationals have a .246 batting average this season, .319 OBP and .422 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 4.66 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Luis Garcia Jr. is the team’s best hitter with a .280 batting average. CJ Abrams leads the team in RBI with 60, while James Wood adds a team‑high 21 home runs.
Andrew Alvarez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 1‑1 record, 3.44 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: July 1, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Payton Tolle Record this season: 4-5 ERA: 2.78
- Home Record: 2-2
- Last 5 against Nationals: –
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Red Sox have won each of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Nationals have lost each of their last seven Wednesday road games against AL East opponents.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last nine day games against NL East opponents following a home loss.
- The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Wednesday road games against AL East opponents.
- The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games against the Nationals.
- The Red Sox have won the first inning in each of their last four games against the Nationals.
- The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Alvarez Record this season: 1-1 ERA: 3.44
- Road Record: 0-1
- Last 5 against Red Sox: –
Why the Washington Nationals will win
- The Nationals have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
- The Red Sox have lost three of their last four games as favorites following a loss.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games following a home loss.
- The Nationals have covered the run line in eight of their last nine day games against American League opponents following a road win.
- The Nationals have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Red Sox’s last four day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Nationals’ last five games as underdogs against the Red Sox have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of the Nationals’ last six day games.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Willson Contreras has hit a home run in four of his last six home appearances against the Nationals after playing the previous day.
- Payton Tolle has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five home appearances.
- Caleb Durbin has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last nine games against opponents that held a winning record.
Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts
- Andrew Alvarez has recorded five strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against AL East opponents.
- Luis Garcia has hit at least one home run in five of his last seven appearances after playing the previous day.
- Nasim Nunez ranks 1st in the league in Steals (32) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Red Sox rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (73).
- The Red Sox rank 30th in the league for RBIs this season (320).
- The Nationals rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (437).
- The Nationals rank 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (460).
Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction
The Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings against the Nationals and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Boston.
In this Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -145 home favorites. I like the Red Sox in a bounce-back spot today with Tolle on the mound, who has been excellent at home with a 2.27 ERA. The Red Sox have a superior bullpen, ranking 6th in the league as opposed to the Nationals’ 26th and are slightly better against lefties in the last 10 days. Take the Red Sox to win this one.